Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices mostly declined on Friday as lower demand and a sharp rebound in solar generation eased the regional balance. However, dependence on imports kept Romania, Montenegro, Bulgaria and Serbia among Europe’s higher-priced power markets. Prices in the day-ahead market showed a mixed picture across the region.
Hungary’s HUPX benchmark fell €29.1/MWh to €234.07/MWh, while Serbia’s SEEPEX dropped €18.4/MWh to €242.27/MWh. Romania was the region’s most expensive major market at €250.35/MWh, followed by Montenegro at €246.60/MWh and Bulgaria at €245.91/MWh.
Prices also retreated in Slovenia, Croatia and North Macedonia. Slovenia was down €13.7/MWh to €214.92/MWh, Croatia fell €13.2/MWh to €220.86/MWh and North Macedonia declined €16.7/MWh to €232.80/MWh.
The movement was not uniform: Greece rose €24.5/MWh to €225.80/MWh and Italy gained €15.1/MWh to €240.44/MWh. Montenegro’s price increased by €7.7/MWh.
Germany remained much cheaper at €137.59/MWh, leaving Hungary at a €96.49/MWh premium despite the Hungarian decline. The Germany-Hungary spread narrowed by around €18/MWh from Thursday but remained wide, reflecting continued congestion and the value of north-to-south transmission capacity.
Solar output reshapes intraday prices
Solar generation was the main downward influence on prices. Regional solar output was forecast at about 5.15 GW, more than 2 GW higher day on day, while wind generation fell by almost 2.8 GW to around 795 MW. Regional consumption was forecast at 31.31 GW, down about 1.26 GW from Thursday.
The changing generation mix produced a more pronounced intraday price profile. HUPX baseload averaged €234.1/MWh, with prices falling to a low of €86.7/MWh during the solar-heavy middle of the day before reaching a maximum of €314.5/MWh.
Hungarian peak power averaged €192.2/MWh, well below the €276/MWh off-peak average. Solar generation is increasingly suppressing conventional daytime peak prices, while scarcity shifts towards the morning and evening hours.
Similar patterns were evident elsewhere. Greek peak power averaged €197/MWh against an off-peak average of €254.6/MWh, while the HEnEx minimum recovered to €90/MWh after coming close to zero in the previous session.
The growing gap between solar hours and evening periods is becoming an increasingly important trading signal for batteries, flexible generation and industrial consumers.
Import dependence persists across the region
Despite the spot-price decline, Southeast Europe remained structurally short of electricity. Net imports across Hungary and Southeast Europe were forecast at about 3.62 GW, down 872 MW from Thursday but still substantial. Imports from the Austrian and Slovak direction remained particularly high, at around 4.21 GW.
At the same time, the region was forecast to export a net 519 MW to Italy. The flows show electricity moving through several interconnected price zones rather than simply from western Europe into one Southeast European deficit area.
Romania had one of the region’s largest deficits, with forecast consumption of about 6.30 GW against generation of around 4.66 GW. Average imports were therefore near 1.63 GW. Hungary was also heavily reliant on imported power, with consumption of roughly 4.23 GW and domestic generation of around 3.13 GW, leaving imports of approximately 1.10 GW.
Serbia remained another significant deficit market. Forecast consumption of around 4.01 GW compared with generation of roughly 3.20 GW resulted in an average import requirement of about 809 MW.
The deficit helps explain why SEEPEX stood at €242.27/MWh even after falling almost €20/MWh from the previous session. Serbia traded roughly €8/MWh above Hungary and more than €100/MWh above Germany, underscoring the importance of cross-border capacity, domestic generation availability and balancing requirements for Serbian wholesale prices.
Croatia also remained a large importer, with its deficit at around 863 MW. Greece moved in the opposite direction: generation of around 6.47 GW exceeded consumption of approximately 5.24 GW, leaving exports of roughly 1.23 GW.
Hungary’s role in regional power flows
Cross-border flows highlighted Hungary’s growing importance as both an importing market and a transit hub. The country imported heavily from Slovakia and Austria while sending large volumes east towards Romania. Commercial Hungary-to-Romania flows reached around 1.58 GW on a baseload basis.
Hungary’s imports from cheaper western and central European markets, alongside exports towards higher-priced eastern markets, illustrate its position at the centre of regional trading. This also helps explain why the Germany-Hungary spread remains an important signal for Southeast European electricity traders.
Even with several gigawatts of electricity moving towards the region, available transmission capacity is insufficient to fully arbitrage the price difference. Forward markets, meanwhile, remained considerably firmer than Friday’s spot-market correction.
Hungarian Week 44 power rose to €265.50/MWh, Week 45 increased to €271.50/MWh and November climbed to €255.50/MWh. The November Hungary-Germany forward spread was around €57.50/MWh, while the Week 44 spread remained close to €90/MWh.
Fuel prices also strengthened. Austrian CEGH gas rose to €91.77/MWh, Greek gas reached €81.56/MWh and EU carbon allowances climbed to €86.47/t CO2. November gas traded at around €91.50/MWh, while November coal stood near $151 a tonne.
The divergence between weaker day-ahead power and stronger forward contracts was a key feature of Friday’s session. Lower demand and stronger solar generation eased spot markets, but the regional structure remained tight: Southeast Europe continued to rely on several gigawatts of imports, the Germany-Hungary differential remained exceptionally wide, and Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria and Montenegro continued to trade at substantial premiums to western Europe.
Market conditions were increasingly characterised by intraday volatility rather than a single high or low daily price. Solar output compressed prices around midday, while declining renewable generation towards evening again exposed the region to gas, coal, imports and transmission constraints. The widening hourly spread is becoming one of the most important characteristics of the Southeast European power market for traders, generators and storage investors.