Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices for Wednesday delivery fell sharply as wind and solar output improved, domestic generation strengthened and import requirements eased. The changes removed much of the scarcity premium that had lifted regional markets above western European benchmarks a day earlier. The largest correction was recorded in Serbia.
SEEPEX baseload in Serbia dropped by €105.7/MWh to €211.42/MWh, making Serbia the cheapest market in the region and bringing it close to Germany at €211.94/MWh. Hungary’s HUPX fell by €74.1/MWh to €252.42/MWh, while Romania declined to €246.11/MWh and Bulgaria to €245.14/MWh. The move followed Tuesday’s tight conditions.
Regional electricity consumption is forecast at 31,756 MW, up 527 MW day on day, while total net imports are expected to fall by 152 MW to 3,479 MW. The forecast also points to higher renewable availability, with solar generation rising by 388 MW to 5,552 MW and wind output increasing by 510 MW to 1,772 MW. The additional supply coincided with lower spot prices despite higher demand.
Serbia’s balance shifts and SEEPEX converges with Germany
The Serbian market shows the clearest change in fundamentals. Consumption is indicated rising to 3,956 MW from 3,841 MW, while generation increases more sharply to 3,403 MW from 2,862 MW. As a result, the average net import requirement falls to around 553 MW, compared with 979 MW a day earlier.
The reduction in Serbia’s import requirement is about 426 MW, in a context where marginal imported electricity can influence clearing prices during tight hours. SEEPEX moved from being among the more expensive regional markets on Tuesday at €317.1/MWh to a Wednesday level that was about a €41/MWh discount versus Hungary. Serbia’s maximum price fell from €450/MWh to €317.6/MWh, while its minimum dropped to €130/MWh around H14.
A similar midday pattern appeared on HUPX, with prices ranging between €152.4/MWh and €333.1/MWh. Germany increased by €16.3/MWh to €211.94/MWh, while Hungary fell sharply, compressing the HU-DE spread to €40.49/MWh from about €131/MWh. The convergence indicates that the earlier premium was not sustained into Wednesday delivery.
CORRECTION SPREADS ACROSS CONNECTED MARKETS; ALBANIA AND NORTH MACEDONIA DIVERGE
A broader set of interconnected markets joined the correction after Tuesday’s tightness. Romanian OPCOM fell by €61.1/MWh to €246.11/MWh, Bulgarian IBEX declined by €54.8/MWh to €245.14/MWh, Croatian CROPEX dropped by €32.7/MWh to €238.59/MWh, Slovenia fell to .
The remaining figures were Montenegro’s BELEN down by €40.5/MWh; to €254.27/MWh;. Italy settled at €252.40/MWh;, virtually identical to Hungary, removing the baseload-level Hungary-Italy differential.
The corridor narrowed compared with Tuesday, with Slovenia, Croatia, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Italy largely clustered between roughly €236 and €254/MWh;. North Macedonia remained at €267.45/MWh;, while Albania rose by €30.6/MWh; to €285.56/MWh;, the highest baseload price among the markets covered.
An Albania-specific balance supported the divergence: consumption increased to €876 MW; from €839 MW;, generation fell to €511 MW; from €545 MW;, and the country’s average import requirement increased to around €366 MW; from €294 MW;. As a result, ALPEX trading was roughly €33/MWh above Hungary and €74/MWh above Serbia;.