Southeast European electricity markets were under price pressure for delivery on 13 October, with Serbia recording the highest day-ahead baseload price among the regional exchanges covered. At the same time, the premium between Hungary and Germany widened, reflecting continued separation in wholesale pricing across Central and Southeastern Europe.
Serbia’s SEEPEX day-ahead baseload reached €228.17/MWh, down €2.60 from the previous session. Hungary’s HUPX benchmark fell €11.90 to €223/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN settled at €206.40/MWh. Greece and Bulgaria traded at around €224.60/MWh, keeping high prices widespread across the region despite declines in some markets.
Germany saw the largest day-ahead move lower, with prices falling €37 to €160.23/MWh. That drop widened Hungary’s premium over Germany to €62.78/MWh, up €25.10 from the prior comparison point. The wider gap occurred alongside continued cross-border imports that support regional electricity supply.
Demand-supply outlook and generation changes
For Tuesday, electricity consumption across Hungary and Southeast Europe was forecast to rise by 858 MW to 31,194 MW. Net regional imports were expected to decline by 732 MW to 2,946 MW. The combination of higher demand and lower imports pointed to a larger contribution from regional generation without bringing Southeast European prices closer to German levels.
Regional electricity production was projected to increase from 26,659 MW to 28,249 MW, a gain of 1,590 MW. Wind generation was forecast to rise by 1,458 MW to 4,316 MW, partly offsetting a 978 MW decline in solar output to 2,685 MW. The outlook indicated that stronger renewables could reduce import dependence even if the regional price premium persists.
National balances: Serbia import dependence and Romania risks
Serbia remained among the most import-dependent markets in absolute terms, with consumption forecast at 3,728 MW against domestic generation of 2,699 MW. That left net imports of approximately 1,029 MW. Hungary faced a larger deficit of 1,570 MW, while Bosnia and Herzegovina was expected to export 478 MW.
Montenegro shifted from near balance on Monday to a small net export of 23 MW on Tuesday. Romania’s forecast balance improved as net imports fell from 1,190 MW to just 253 MW while domestic generation rose to almost 6,000 MW. Bulgaria moved in the opposite direction, switching from a marginal net export of 9 MW to imports of 277 MW, while Greece’s export surplus contracted from 585 MW to 168 MW.
Romania remained exposed to generation availability risks tied to hydrology and nuclear outages. Both reactors at the Cernavodă nuclear power plant were expected to remain unavailable until at least 21 October following exceptionally low Danube water levels. With nuclear generation absent from the reported Romanian mix, the country relied more on hydropower, wind, gas and imported electricity.
Exchange prices and intraday volatility
Price developments across exchanges were uneven. Romania’s OPCOM benchmark declined to €218.37/MWh, while Croatia and Slovenia fell to €214.46/MWh and €212.83/MWh respectively. North Macedonia’s MEMO rose €17.40 to €215.84/MWh, while Greece gained €6.50 to €224.57/MWh.
Intraday profiles also showed volatility in both markets cited for hourly spreads. Serbia’s hourly SEEPEX price reached €320/MWh during hour eight after a minimum of €165/MWh in hour two. Hungary recorded a peak of €284.30/MWh during hour eight with its lowest hourly price at €164.40/MWh.
In both Serbia and Hungary, average off-peak prices exceeded average peak prices, reflecting supply conditions around morning and evening hours compared with midday trading periods. Italy also showed internal market fragmentation between bidding zones: the southern zone averaged just €148.20/MWh including one hour at zero, while northern Italy averaged about €224.60/MWh.
Forward curves and fuel-carbon signals
Forward electricity prices provided limited evidence of a sustained near-term correction in the contracts cited for Hungary and Germany. Hungarian week 43 baseload traded at €246/MWh before week 44 rose €15.50 to €240/MWh. The November Hungarian contract increased to €237/MWh and remained at a €44/MWh premium over the equivalent German November contract priced at €193/MWh.
The German-Hungarian week 43 spread stood at €52.50/MWh. Fuel and carbon benchmarks reinforced pressure on forward power pricing: the Austrian CEGH gas benchmark increased by €4.50 to €85.27/MWh, while EU carbon allowances rose by €1.40 to €88.34 per tonne. Higher gas and emissions costs supported expensive thermal generation when renewable output and imports could not fully cover regional demand.
The October 13 balance reflected a recurring feature of Southeast European trading conditions: stronger regional generation can reduce imports substantially while prices may still remain above €200/MWh across most exchanges covered in this report.