Southeastern European day-ahead power markets moved in sharply different directions on Thursday. Prices in Hungary and Serbia exceeded €260/MWh as rising demand and a widening regional supply deficit increased reliance on imports, while Greece, Albania, Montenegro and much of the western Balkans recorded declines. The divergence coincided with a widening premium over Germany.
Prices rise in Hungary and Serbia as Greece falls
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload price gained €10.8 to €263.21/MWh, the highest among the markets covered. Serbia’s SEEPEX rose €49.2 to €260.63/MWh, leaving only a narrow discount to Hungary.
Romania’s OPCOM price reached €251.53/MWh and Bulgaria’s IBEX price was €250.17/MWh, increases of €5.4 and €5.0, respectively. North Macedonia settled at €249.48/MWh, while Montenegro, Croatia, Albania and Slovenia were roughly in the €229–€239/MWh range.
Greece moved lower, with HENEX down €39.3 to €201.29/MWh, creating a €61.92/MWh discount to Hungary. Germany’s price fell more sharply, to €148.61/MWh, leaving Hungary at a €114.60/MWh premium to the German market.
The day’s price divergence pointed to physical power balances and cross-border constraints as key market drivers, rather than fuel prices.
Regional demand growth lifts import requirements
Combined electricity consumption in Hungary and Southeast Europe was forecast at 32,624 MW, up 1,256 MW, or about 4%, from Wednesday. Net imports into the region increased by 1,296 MW to 4,713 MW, covering roughly 14% of total consumption.
Imports from the Austrian-Slovak core into Hungary and Southeast Europe rose by 964 MW to 4,410 MW. Flows from Italy into the region increased by 283 MW to 383 MW.
Renewable output forecasts also changed: solar generation was expected to fall by 571 MW to 3,735 MW, while wind generation was forecast to increase by 409 MW to 3,100 MW. Total regional generation remained broadly stable at around 27.9 GW, against demand of more than 32.6 GW.
The previous day’s generation mix had already relied heavily on coal and gas, while hydro output had fallen by more than 600 MW. Stronger demand, lower solar availability and limited additional domestic generation accompanied higher prices in northern and central Balkan markets even as German prices dropped.
Electricity available at lower prices nearby did not translate into full price convergence, as cross-border transmission capacity was insufficient to carry all the power between markets.
Hungary remains the main point of market pressure
Hungarian consumption rose to 5,235 MW, while domestic generation was around 2,536 MW. Average net imports were approximately 2,699 MW, meaning imports covered more than half of Hungary’s electricity demand.
Hungary drew substantial volumes from Austria and Slovakia while also supplying neighbouring Southeast European markets. Average commercial flows were about 1,307 MW from Austria into Hungary and 1,822 MW from Slovakia into Hungary.
At the same time, Hungary exported around 614 MW towards Romania and 526 MW towards Croatia. Average flows from Serbia to Hungary were approximately 642 MW.
The HU-DE spread widened to €114.60/MWh despite substantial imports from Central Europe. Interconnection capacity was being heavily used but was not enough to eliminate the scarcity premium in Hungary and nearby markets. Germany’s day-ahead price fell by more than €63/MWh while Hungary’s rose, marking a sharp decoupling between the markets.
Serbian prices rebound as cross-border flows increase
SEEPEX rose from €211.4/MWh to €260.63/MWh, a gain of more than 23%, bringing the Serbian price to within €2.58/MWh of HUPX. Serbian peak power averaged €281.9/MWh, compared with an off-peak average of €239.4/MWh, and the maximum hourly price reached €343.4/MWh.
Serbia remained a net importer despite relatively strong domestic generation. Consumption was forecast at about 3,928 MW and generation at approximately 3,220 MW, leaving a net deficit of close to 708 MW.
Power flowed into Serbia from Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Montenegro, while significant volumes moved north into Hungary. Average commercial exports from Serbia to Hungary were about 642 MW; Bulgaria supplied roughly 338 MW and Bosnia around 345 MW to Serbia.
Serbia was therefore both a deficit market and a transit route linking lower-priced Balkan supply with Hungary’s higher prices.
Greek surplus contrasts with tighter northern markets
Greek consumption was broadly unchanged at about 5,282 MW, while generation was forecast at around 6,441 MW. This left Greece with approximately 1,159 MW of net exports, alongside a fall in HENEX baseload to €201.29/MWh.
The Greek hourly price range was wide: the minimum fell to €1/MWh, while the maximum reached €290/MWh. The very low afternoon price was consistent with a solar-driven midday surplus followed by tighter evening conditions.
The Greek-Hungarian price differential widened to almost €62/MWh. The spread represented substantial theoretical arbitrage value, while its persistence showed that transmission constraints across the Balkans continued to limit the movement of cheaper southern electricity to higher-priced Central European markets.
Prices ease in Montenegro and the western Balkans
Montenegro’s BELEN price fell €15.3 to €238.93/MWh, more than €24/MWh below Hungary. Peak prices averaged €258.5/MWh, against an off-peak average of €219.3/MWh.
Montenegro’s system was close to balanced, with consumption around 340 MW, generation near 311 MW and net imports of only about 28 MW. The country continued to act as a cross-border transit route: average flows towards Serbia were around 174 MW, while flows on the Montenegro-Italy link were predominantly towards Montenegro during the day.
Croatia’s price fell to €234.06/MWh and Slovenia’s to €228.63/MWh. Albania recorded one of the day’s largest declines, dropping €51.6 to €233.99/MWh.
The western Balkan markets thus traded well below Serbia and Hungary, despite continued import dependence in several individual systems.
Fuel markets and forward power prices
Spot gas did not post a comparable increase alongside electricity prices. CEGH Austrian gas fell €1.2 to €89.63/MWh, while the Greek gas indicator dropped €4.6 to €79.19/MWh. EU carbon allowances edged up by €0.3 to EUR 85.91/t CO2.
The day’s electricity movements were primarily associated with power-system conditions, including demand, renewable output, generation availability and transmission congestion, rather than a sudden increase in marginal fuel costs.
Forward electricity markets continued to price tight conditions in Hungary. Hungarian Week 44 and Week 45 power were both quoted at around €263/MWh, while November rose €6 to €250/MWh. The Hungarian calendar contract increased to €170.50/MWh.
Price separation highlights the role of transmission
The key feature of the October 22 session was the widening geographical separation between electricity prices, alongside Hungary’s €263/MWh price and Serbia’s daily increase of €49/MWh. Germany was below €150/MWh, Greece was around €201/MWh and Italy around €225/MWh, while Hungary and Serbia were near €260/MWh.
At the same time, Central European imports into Hungary and Southeast Europe were already above 4.4 GW. The combination increases the value of flexibility and cross-border capacity for traders, generators and storage operators. Batteries, dispatchable generation, hydro flexibility and transmission rights become more valuable when neighbouring markets differ by €50–€115/MWh during the same delivery day.
The common ADEX intraday continuous environment for Slovenia, Hungary and Serbia launched this week, with the aim of improving operational trading and short-term balancing between the three markets. Improved trading infrastructure alone cannot remove physical grid constraints.
The October 22 market showed greater market integration making price signals more visible while also exposing the limited transmission capacity available to arbitrage them. Until additional interconnection, storage and flexible generation are available, periods of high regional demand are likely to continue producing large, commercially important spreads between Central Europe and the Balkans.