Greece strengthened its position as one of Southeast Europe’s most competitive power markets in Week 42, with higher renewable and gas-fired generation and a sharp rise in exports. Its wholesale prices remained well below those in northern Balkan markets.
Greek day-ahead electricity averaged €186.57/MWh, 6.7% higher than in the previous week. The average remained substantially below prices in Serbia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia. Greece’s discount to Bulgaria widened to €49.32/MWh, while the price differential with Hungary reached €60.30/MWh.
Wind and gas generation support exports
Combined wind and solar generation in Greece rose 11.9% to 640.88 GWh. Wind output increased 83.5%, more than offsetting a 16.9% fall in solar generation. Thermal generation also climbed, rising 26.14% to 437.23 GWh, primarily as gas-fired output grew 26.56%.
The increase in thermal generation came alongside stronger renewable output, expanding the electricity available for domestic use and exports. Hydropower was the weaker part of the generation mix, falling 33.97% to 30.22 GWh. That decline was not enough to offset the gains in wind and thermal generation.
Cross-border trade reflected the increase in available supply: Greek net electricity exports surged 143.88% to 198.49 GWh. Greece became a more significant source of supply for surrounding markets as several northern Balkan systems were tightening.
Regional trade and market implications
Greece has spent years adding renewable generation while expanding gas infrastructure and cross-border connectivity. Week 42 showed how those assets can work together commercially when weather conditions are favourable. High wind output lowered the effective cost of part of the country’s electricity mix, while gas-fired units supplied additional dispatchable generation.
Together, the two sources allowed Greece to cover domestic consumption and send more electricity to higher-priced neighbouring markets. The week also showed why gas generation remains relevant in a power system with rapidly growing renewable output. Although gas prices were exceptionally high, Greek gas-fired generation still increased substantially, indicating that market conditions and export opportunities supported dispatch despite the fuel cost.
For regional traders, the developments reinforced Greece’s potential role as a southern supply hub connecting renewable generation, LNG-backed gas-fired capacity and Balkan electricity demand. For investors, the implications are more nuanced. Large renewable additions can bring lower wholesale prices and periods of merchant-price compression, but strong interconnection can enable surplus renewable electricity to be monetised through exports rather than remaining in the domestic market.
Transmission capacity is therefore central to the investment case. Batteries also matter: storage can retain electricity during low-price renewable hours and release it during evening or regional peaks, potentially raising the value captured by renewable projects.
Week 42 did not establish a permanent structural advantage for Greece, as weather, outages and transmission constraints can quickly reverse trade patterns. It did, however, demonstrate a market configuration that could become more frequent: Greece producing large volumes of wind and solar power, dispatching flexible gas generation when required and exporting surplus electricity to more expensive Balkan markets. That combination could make the Greek market increasingly influential in shaping electricity flows across Southeast Europe.
Reporting provided by Virtu.Energy.