Electricity prices rose across Southeast Europe in Week 42, but at markedly different rates, widening price spreads between neighbouring markets. Serbia, Hungary and Romania recorded the region’s highest averages, while Greece remained substantially cheaper.
The review of regional electricity markets was provided courtesy of Virtu.Energy. The widening differences increased the commercial value of cross-border capacity and made congestion more important for traders and flexible generators. The divergence also carried greater significance than the overall rise in average electricity prices.
Price differences and cross-border capacity
The reported gap between the highest- and lowest-priced European SEE markets reached €60.30/MWh, up from €51.66/MWh the previous week. Greece traded at a discount of €53.94/MWh to Romania and €60.30/MWh to Hungary. In interconnected markets, spreads of this size indicate that available generation is not moving freely enough to remove price differences between neighbouring zones.
Physical congestion, available transmission capacity, generation patterns and national demand consequently become more significant commercial factors. Greece offered a clear example of the regional divergence: its relatively low price coincided with substantially stronger electricity exports. Serbia and Hungary increased their net import requirements, while Bulgaria’s net export position, traditionally important to the region, almost disappeared.
These conditions can create substantial value for holders of cross-border transmission rights and traders able to position supply between lower- and higher-priced markets. They also strengthen the investment case for interconnection. A €50-60/MWh spread would not be captured continuously by a transmission project, but repeated periods of structural divergence increase the economic value of transfer capacity by enabling lower-cost generation to reach constrained markets more effectively.
Regional prices and investment risks
Storage can respond to the same market conditions. A battery connected in a high-priced market can capture intraday volatility without participating directly in cross-border trading. Larger storage projects may also lessen the effects of congestion by shifting electricity from periods of lower demand into system peaks.
For renewable producers, wider regional spreads bring both opportunities and risks. A wind or solar plant in a lower-priced bidding zone may generate competitively priced electricity but earn lower merchant revenues than a comparable project in a structurally tighter market. Developers in high-priced zones, by contrast, may capture stronger revenues while facing greater balancing and grid-connection risks.
Week 42’s price pattern showed a more complex investment environment than any single regional average would suggest. Serbia, Hungary and Romania formed a high-price cluster, while Bulgaria and Croatia were slightly cheaper but still recorded elevated prices. Greece was a lower-priced southern market, supported by rising renewable and thermal output.
Italy, at €225.21/MWh, sat between those groups, while Türkiye remained structurally separate at €52.69/MWh. Average prices were €247.89/MWh in Serbia, €246.87/MWh in Hungary and €240.51/MWh in Romania. Bulgaria averaged €235.89/MWh, Croatia €230.49/MWh and Greece €186.57/MWh.
Implications for power buyers and developers
For utilities and industrial buyers, market fragmentation increases the value of geographical diversification in electricity procurement. Traders must give greater weight to hourly flows, cross-border capacity and congestion forecasting. For investors, the regional pattern underscores the importance of location alongside generation technology.
The next phase of renewable investment will depend not only on producing low-cost electricity, but also on where it enters the grid and what transmission capacity is available. Storage or contractual structures may also help protect producers from persistent local price discounts.
Courtesy of Virtu.Energy