LNG deliveries to Greece and Italy rose sharply in Week 42 as Southeast Europe entered the winter period with high gas prices. Greek inflows reached 572.43 GWh, up 42.41% from the previous week, while Italian volumes climbed 28.01% to 2,789.46 GWh. Croatia recorded LNG inflows of 432.39 GWh.
Figures from Virtu.Energy showed that the European TTF benchmark averaged €86.54/MWh in Week 42, an increase of 11.6% week on week, and ended Friday at €87.55/MWh. The higher LNG inflows coincided with a stronger price premium for access to diversified supply routes. Diversification can strengthen physical supply security, but it does not shield buyers from global LNG prices.
Southern supply routes and global price exposure
Greece has become an increasingly important southern entry point for gas moving towards Bulgaria and the wider Balkan region. Croatia’s LNG infrastructure offers buyers in Central and Southeast Europe another route to supply. Italy has substantial LNG infrastructure, pipeline connections and one of Europe’s largest gas markets.
Together, the three systems form part of a southern supply network that can reduce reliance on any single source or corridor. LNG cargoes, however, compete in an international market, so stronger Asian demand or a disruption to global supply may force European buyers to bid more for replacement cargoes. Europe’s relatively weak storage position increases that exposure and could keep prices elevated beyond the immediate winter period if the continent must compete aggressively for LNG during the next storage-refilling cycle.
Gas costs and regional electricity markets
Gas-fired plants remain important sources of flexible electricity across Southeast Europe, and higher gas prices raise their marginal generation costs. Because regional electricity markets are interconnected, expensive gas-fired plants can set the marginal power price even in countries with relatively little gas-fired generation. In Greece, gas-fired electricity production increased materially in Week 42 despite high fuel prices, while electricity exports also rose. High regional power prices can therefore support gas generation even when its fuel costs are elevated.
LNG terminals, pipelines and interconnectors affect electricity-market competitiveness as well as gas security by shaping where flexible gas-fired generators can obtain fuel and at what cost. Gas infrastructure can provide security and flexibility during the energy transition, but projects exposed to international LNG prices also face potentially substantial operating-cost volatility. Gas-fired power projects may consequently need strong hedging strategies, capacity revenues or complementary renewable portfolios to remain commercially resilient.
For industrial buyers, diversified infrastructure lowers the risk of a physical supply interruption without guaranteeing stable gas prices. More expensive imported gas can improve the economics of electrification, energy efficiency, renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs) and flexible consumption. Week 42 brought higher LNG inflows into Greece and Italy, alongside Croatian deliveries, while European gas prices remained exceptionally high. The strategic challenge is to use LNG for security and flexibility without letting globally priced gas dominate regional electricity costs.