The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is changing electricity trading economics across Southeast Europe by widening the gap between wholesale power values and the carbon-adjusted cost of imports from the Western Balkans. The effect is described as potentially more immediate for electricity than for sectors such as steel and aluminium. Electricity imports do not receive the same free-allocation relief that industries benefit from during the withdrawal of free EU carbon allowances.
The latest published CBAM certificate price reached €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ for the third quarter, up from €75.28 in the preceding quarter. Using existing national default emissions factors, the third-quarter price implies a gross CBAM exposure of approximately €85.70/MWh for Serbian electricity, €80.59/MWh for Montenegro and €94.50/MWh for Bosnia and Herzegovina. North Macedonia faces an indicative €73.01/MWh, while Albania’s zero default factor produces no carbon charge under the default calculation.
The figures are described as illustrative amounts based on the third-quarter certificate price rather than final charges for October deliveries. The fourth-quarter certificate price will be set in January 2027, and actual liabilities can also reflect eligible deductions for carbon prices paid in the country of origin. The reported levels are presented as showing how CBAM costs can affect conventional wholesale trading margins.
Wholesale spreads versus indicative CBAM exposure
On October 9, Serbia’s SEEPEX day-ahead electricity price rose to €239.96/MWh, up almost 34% from the previous session. Hungary’s HUPX reached €269.43/MWh. The difference between the two daily averages was €29.47/MWh, which is described as remaining substantially below Serbia’s indicative default-based carbon exposure.
The same day, Montenegro’s BELEN price reached €223.39/MWh. Italian wholesale prices in several bidding zones were reported around €230–235/MWh. This was described as producing a narrow indicative price differential for electricity delivered through the Montenegro–Italy interconnection.
The source notes that daily average spreads are not executable trading margins and that hourly variations can create individual opportunities. It also states that low wholesale prices outside the EU do not necessarily translate into competitive electricity pricing inside the EU once carbon treatment is considered. Cross-border transmission capacity, losses, balancing and other trading expenses are listed as additional factors affecting import economics.
Regional flows split between domestic trade and EU-bound exports
The Energy Community Secretariat has identified changes in regional electricity flows linked to evolving market conditions. Gross commercial exchange between Western Balkan and neighbouring EU markets declined by approximately 19% year on year in the first half of 2026, alongside factors including hydrological conditions, generation availability and changing import requirements.
The regional market is described as increasingly separating into two commercial segments: domestic and regional trading where EU CBAM import charges do not apply directly, and exports into EU markets where carbon-adjusted costs influence whether scheduled transactions remain profitable. For Serbian utility EPS, Montenegrin EPCG and power producers across Bosnia and Herzegovina, emphasis is placed on generation technology, electricity origin and the ability to demonstrate actual emissions.
This distinction is highlighted as particularly relevant for renewable energy projects. A Serbian wind farm producing low-carbon electricity is stated not to automatically qualify for favourable CBAM treatment when exported into Hungary unless an EU declarant meets conditions for using actual embedded emissions. Otherwise, exported electricity can remain subject to Serbia’s national default value.
The rules cited require a qualifying physical power purchase agreement, evidence of the generating installation, compliant cross-border capacity nominations, hourly matching between generation and nominated deliveries, and evidence regarding grid connection or the absence of congestion. An accredited verifier must assess supporting information, and guarantees of origin alone are stated not to replace this physical and contractual evidence.
Implications for renewable financing and industrial CBAM liabilities
The source links these requirements to project valuation uncertainty for developers and lenders selling into EU markets. It states that a wind or solar project may generate competitively but still face uncertainty over additional value from direct sales into the EU, affecting projected revenues, long-term power purchase agreements, financing assumptions and investment cases for new renewable capacity.
It also describes spillover effects for industrial manufacturers while noting differences in regulatory treatment across sectors. Under the current CBAM regime, indirect emissions from purchased electricity are included in CBAM liability for cement and fertilisers but not generally for iron, steel and aluminium, where liabilities focus on direct embedded emissions.
The source says this means sourcing renewable electricity does not automatically reduce CBAM certificate obligations for a Serbian steel or aluminium exporter under current rules. It adds that renewable sourcing can still lower operating costs, improve corporate emissions performance and strengthen supply relationships with European manufacturers seeking lower-carbon materials.
For cement and fertiliser producers, qualifying lower-emission electricity is stated to influence carbon intensity used in CBAM calculations subject to applicable methodology and verification requirements. The European Commission has proposed changes to electricity CBAM methodology that could reduce disadvantages faced by renewable generators in countries where default emission factors reflect carbon-intensive thermal production, but adoption is described as incomplete.
CBAM timing and evidence requirements for 2026 imports
The source states that CBAM creates additional revenue opportunities alongside margin and regulatory risk for banks financing renewable energy projects, electricity-intensive manufacturers or cross-border trading businesses. It adds that new project assessments increasingly need to separate conventional wholesale electricity revenues from revenues supported by verified, CBAM-compliant physical export arrangements.
Existing loans may require reassessment if earlier financial models assumed uninterrupted access to EU wholesale price premiums. The first CBAM certificates covering 2026 electricity imports will be purchased from February 2027, with annual declarations and certificate surrender due by September 30, 2027.
The source concludes by describing a structural challenge for Southeast Europe: electricity markets remain physically interconnected while commercial economics diverge due to carbon treatment. It states that a megawatt-hour produced in Serbia or Montenegro can still reach a European buyer through interconnected transmission networks. Whether sales remain profitable is described as depending increasingly on carbon classification and transaction evidence rather than only on wholesale price differences across borders.