Electricity prices across southeastern Europe increased sharply on Monday, October 5, with weekday demand returning alongside lower wind generation. The move widened Hungary’s premium over Germany to €76.14/MWh. Hungary’s day-ahead market also recorded higher prices than several neighbouring exchanges.
On HUPX, the day-ahead average rose by €71.90 to €232.76/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM gained €67.50 to €228.48/MWh, while Albania’s market increased the most among those covered, rising €119.80 to €277.08/MWh. Croatia’s CROPEX climbed €59.80 to €219.83/MWh and Slovenia’s BSP rose €58.50 to €217.71/MWh.
The price increases followed a forecast rise in regional electricity consumption to an average of 28,706 MW, up 2,758 MW or 10.6% from Sunday. Wind generation was forecast to fall by 886 MW to 2,093 MW, while solar output edged down 87 MW to 5,549 MW. The combined demand increase and renewable decline implied roughly 3,731 MW of additional supply requirements from other generation and imports versus Sunday.
Regional net imports increased by 532 MW to 1,636 MW. Inflows from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia rose 296 MW to 1,326 MW, indicating greater reliance on supply from neighbouring Central European markets.
Cross-border price spreads and day-ahead levels
Germany’s day-ahead average fell by €11.70 to €156.62/MWh, while Austria rose by €43.20 to €200.33/MWh. Hungary’s spread versus Germany shifted from an estimated discount of about €7.40/MWh on Sunday to a premium on Monday of €76.14/MWh. The ability for traders to capture any spread depended on cross-border capacity availability, hourly price patterns and transmission costs.
Bulgaria’s IBEX increased by €56.10 to €203.78/MWh and Montenegro’s BELEN climbed by €51.60 to €209.92/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX rose by €14.70 to €169.68/MWh, leaving it €63.08/MWh below Hungary and €58.80/MWh below Romania.
Net import figures also varied across the region: Romania imported 1,407 MW, Croatia 1,090 MW and Hungary 627 MW on average. Bulgaria and Greece recorded net exports of 1,445 MW and 992 MW respectively.
Other markets and forward indicators
Greece’s HENEX rose by €38.70 to €149.51/MWh, remaining €83.26/MWh below Hungary. North Macedonia posted the lowest day-ahead average among the listed markets at €145.40/MWh after a €13.70 increase, with the gap between North Macedonia and Albania reaching €131.68/MWh. Serbia showed average net imports of 862 MW despite its lower price level compared with neighbouring exchanges.
The spot-market move was not reflected in forward indications in the report: Hungarian week-41 power eased by €3.50 to €196/MWh and week-42 fell by €4 to €203/MWh. November remained at €208/MWh, below Monday’s spot average.
Fuel and carbon price changes were described as modest, with Austrian CEGH spot gas edging up by €0.20 to €75.22/MWh and Greek gas falling by €2.30 to €69/MWh. EU carbon allowances held at €84.42 per tonne.