Serbian day-ahead electricity prices for delivery on 2 October fell, while most neighbouring markets recorded increases. The move widened the discount to Hungary, even as sharp evening peaks pushed hourly costs higher. The regional pattern was reflected across multiple trading zones and intraday ranges.
SEEPEX settled at €137.92/MWh, down €12.30/MWh from the previous day. Hungary’s HUPX rose by €7.60/MWh to €171.27/MWh, leaving Serbian electricity €33.35/MWh cheaper. The Serbia–Hungary gap widened by about €20/MWh in one session.
Romania also moved lower, slipping by €2.60/MWh to €161.91/MWh. Prices strengthened elsewhere, with Slovenia reaching €188.30/MWh, up €17.50/MWh, and Croatia gaining €9.30/MWh to €178.66/MWh. The divergence affected the relative pricing of supply into different parts of the region.
Regional price spreads and cross-border delivery economics
The wider spread increased the potential value of supplying higher-priced markets from Serbia and the eastern Balkans. Realisable margins depend on hourly price differences, transmission capacity and the cost of securing cross-border access. Market participants therefore face variability between daily averages and intraday settlement levels.
Montenegro’s BELEN rose by €28.70/MWh to €142.87/MWh, reversing much of its recent weakness. Albania recorded the largest daily increase, climbing by €61/MWh to €158.90/MWh, while North Macedonia advanced by €20.80/MWh to €136.75/MWh. Despite these gains, all three markets remained below Hungary.
Montenegro traded at a €28.40/MWh discount to HUPX, Albania at a €12.37/MWh discount, and North Macedonia at a €34.52/MWh discount. Greece remained the cheapest market in the report at €120.52/MWh, although its daily average rose by €9.40/MWh. Bulgaria increased by €3.80/MWh to €138.63/MWh.
Demand, renewables, flows and intraday volatility
The stronger price environment coincided with an improving aggregate supply balance across Hungary and southeastern Europe. Forecast average demand eased to 29,086 MW, about 297 MW lower than the previous day, while the region’s net export position increased to 593 MW, from 248 MW. Forecast solar generation rose by 1,731 MW to 6,539 MW, more than offsetting a decline in wind output of 1,016 MW.
The wind forecast fell to 4,923 MW, leaving combined renewable output higher alongside lower demand in aggregate terms. The effect varied between markets and delivery hours according to the report’s delivery-hour detail. Net imports from Austria and Slovakia fell to 132 MW, from 479 MW.
Commercial exports towards Italy remained substantial at 1,359 MW, slightly below the previous day’s 1,381 MW. Italy’s national price averaged €216.17/MWh, maintaining a sizeable premium over Balkan markets, while Germany stood at €200.50/MWh. Austria averaged €198.69/MWh, reinforcing an east-west divide in reported daily averages.
SERBIA hourly range and forward market moves including carbon prices
The report highlighted pronounced intraday volatility that daily averages did not capture fully. Serbia’s hourly prices ranged from
Serbia’s hourly prices ranged from €19.40/MWh to €280/MWh, with the maximum in hour 20.
The peak-period average was €101.30/MWh, compared with an off-peak average of €174.60/MWh.
A similar pattern appeared in Montenegro, where hourly prices ranged from €15/MWh to €258.90/MWh. Greece briefly fell to minus €1/MWh but later reached €240.70/MWh, while Croatia’s maximum climbed to €315.10/MWh.
The report also showed forward market firming alongside spot moves. Hungarian November power rose by €3/MWh to €208/MWh, while week 41 increased to €199.50/MWh.
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