Electricity prices across southeastern Europe moved lower for September 30 delivery, with forecasts pointing to stronger wind and solar output alongside reduced demand. The region’s net import requirement fell to 88 MW, while Italy’s pricing stayed comparatively firm, widening its premium over neighbouring markets.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead price fell by €24.50 to €145.63/MWh, while Romania’s OPCOM dropped €25.60 to €144.31/MWh. Bulgaria saw the largest absolute decline among the markets covered, with IBEX down €28 to €133.80/MWh.
Forecasts indicated a stronger renewable supply picture. Average wind generation was expected to rise by 1,519 MW to 6,206 MW, while solar output increased 939 MW to 5,904 MW. Combined, wind and solar were projected to provide 12,110 MW, equivalent to about 42% of forecast regional consumption.
Demand was forecast to decline by 353 MW to 29,112 MW. With lower consumption and higher renewable production, projected net imports for the region fell to just 88 MW, compared with 725 MW a day earlier. Despite the near-balanced regional position, cross-border flows remained substantial on individual borders.
Imports through the Austrian and Slovak interfaces were forecast at 1,003 MW, down 486 MW. Net exports towards Italy increased by 124 MW to 1,326 MW.
Italy premium and spot price divergence across markets
Italy’s price declined only slightly, slipping €1.10 to €201.96/MWh for September 30 delivery. That left Italy €56.33/MWh above Hungary, compared with roughly €32.93/MWh a day earlier. The widening differential increased the incentive for deliveries towards Italy, while realised trading margins were noted as dependent on transmission access and delivery costs.
Prices diverged across southeastern Europe. Serbia’s SEEPEX remained the cheapest market covered at €102.94/MWh, down €7.10 and €42.69/MWh below Hungary. North Macedonia’s MEMO fell €24.10 to €108.08/MWh and Greece’s HENEX declined €12.40 to €109.57/MWh.
Montenegro’s BELEN dropped €15 to €115.92/MWh, keeping a discount of about €29.71/MWh versus Hungary. Albania’s ALPEX, however, eased only €1.10 to €146.47/MWh, placing it close to the Hungarian price and above several southern neighbours.
Slovenia and Croatia stayed closer to higher-priced central European markets. Slovenia’s BSP fell €24.90 to €149.11/MWh and Croatia’s CROPEX declined €24.80 to €147.98/MWh; Austria settled at €155.21/MWh and Germany at €140.75/MWh.
Hungary’s premium over Germany edged up to €4.88/MWh despite both markets recording substantial declines. Romania traded just €1.32/MWh below Hungary, indicating closer alignment than discounts seen in Serbia, Greece and North Macedonia.
Forward power levels and related gas and carbon prices
Forward quotations weakened but remained above the latest Hungarian spot level. Hungarian week 41 power fell by €7 to €195/MWh and week 42 declined by €6 to €199/MWh; October dropped by €7 to €197.50/MWh.
The October quotation was about €51.87/MWh above September 30 spot delivery, indicating that improved renewable balance did not remove the premium embedded in near-term contracts.
Hungary’s week 41 forward spread over Germany widened by €11 to €39/MWh, while the October spread edged up to €40/MWh.
Austrian CEGH gas fell by €3.10 to €71.64/MWh and the Greek quotation declined by €1.90 to €59.60/MWh; October gas dropped by €3.50 to €71/MWh while the fourth-quarter contract held at €74.50/MWh.
EU carbon allowances eased by €0.20 to reach €85.95/t.
The day’s figures reflected stronger renewable output and reduced aggregate import dependence in the region’s outlook, while persistent price gaps continued to affect cross-border trading economics as Italy still paid almost €100/MWh more than Serbia and Hungarian October power remained near €200/MWh.