Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices rebounded strongly for Sept. 28 as weekday demand recovered and regional cross-border flows shifted toward higher-priced western markets. Serbia remained a major outlier, with prices almost €50/MWh below Hungary despite staying a net electricity importer. Regional consumption rose by about 3.65 GW to 28.83 GW, helping restore the weekday premium after the weekend price collapse.
On Sept. 28, Hungary’s HUPX base price increased by €47.3/MWh to €161.19/MWh. Romania climbed to €154.34/MWh, Bulgaria to €146.11/MWh, and Greece to €135.11/MWh. Croatia settled at €166.14/MWh, Montenegro at €165.13/MWh, Slovenia at €168.95/MWh, North Macedonia at €150.41/MWh, and Albania at €129.40/MWh.
Serbia recorded the region’s lowest average at €111.69/MWh, little changed from Sunday and around €49.5/MWh below HUPX. The unusually wide Serbian discount persisted even though Serbia remained a net electricity importer. The pricing gap contrasted with higher averages across other Southeast European markets.
Western markets strengthen as cross-border flows turn west
Western markets were substantially stronger on the day, with Germany trading around €195.40/MWh, Austria at €174.51/MWh, and Italy at about €203.55/MWh. This maintained a stronger economic incentive for electricity to move west where cross-border capacity was available. The combined Hungary and SEE system shifted from an almost balanced position on Sunday to net exports averaging around 1.39 GW.
About 1.26 GW flowed toward Italy, while roughly 547 MW moved toward Austria and Slovakia. The change in cross-border direction was described as one of the strongest drivers behind Monday’s market recovery. Regional export patterns also reflected differing balances across countries.
Bulgaria exported an average of 1.33 GW, Romania about 754 MW, Greece 1.35 GW, and Bosnia and Herzegovina around 530 MW. Hungary remained a net importer of about 821 MW, Croatia imported around 859 MW, and Serbia about 394 MW. Romania also acted as an east-to-west transit source, with flows toward Hungary reaching around 1.92 GW.
Bulgaria supplied approximately 1.15 GW to Romania and almost 390 MW to Serbia, indicating an increasingly interconnected flow structure across eastern SEE markets. Hungary then redistributed part of those imports west and south, exporting around 851 MW toward Austria, 679 MW toward Slovenia, and 515 MW toward Croatia.
Serbia’s discount persists; hourly curves highlight flexibility value
The Serbian pricing gap remained the most notable anomaly in the day-ahead averages, with SEEPEX trading around €34/MWh below Bulgaria, almost €43/MWh below Romania, and close to €50/MWh below Hungary. Despite this pricing divergence, Serbia was still importing electricity overall, indicating that national net balance alone did not explain day-ahead price formation in the reported session.
The report pointed to interconnector constraints, hourly commercial schedules, and congestion as factors determining whether cheaper electricity reaches neighbouring premium markets. Hourly curves also showed the growing value of flexibility across the day’s trading profile.
HUPX fell to around €5.6/MWh during the midday renewable period before rising to €342.2/MWh at hour 20. Serbia ranged from around €20/MWh during the low-price period to €276.6/MWh in the evening, while Greece briefly reached €0/MWh around midday before recovering toward an evening maximum of about €271/MWh.
The difference between individual hours was considerably larger than the difference between many national daily averages in the Sept. 28 session described in the data set. Strong solar production continued to compress midday prices, while declining renewable output in the evening restored premiums for flexible hydro, gas generation, storage and imports.
The Sept. 28 session therefore reflected two signals: weekday demand and stronger westbound exports supported higher average prices across most of SEE, while prices remained far from fully converged across countries.
The trade value described in the session data was linked not only to exposure to a regional base price but also to capturing widening spreads between countries and between oversupplied midday hours and an evening flexibility premium.