Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices climbed sharply on 29 October, taking most markets above €300/MWh. Stronger demand, lower wind output and expensive fuel markets tightened the balance ahead of the evening peak. Prices rose across the region, although hourly data show the pressure was concentrated in the evening rather than spread evenly through the day.
Serbia’s SEEPEX day-ahead price increased by €37.4/MWh from the previous session to €330.04/MWh, above Hungary and most neighbouring markets. Montenegro gained €46.4 to €312.80/MWh, while North Macedonia rose €41.1 to €325.80/MWh. Albania recorded the region’s highest average, at €366.85/MWh, up €64.8; Romania settled at €323.76/MWh and Bulgaria at €320.13/MWh.
Evening peaks drove regional prices higher
On SEEPEX, Serbian peak-load electricity averaged €369.7/MWh, and the highest hourly price reached €500/MWh at H18. The session’s minimum was €205/MWh, indicating that Serbia had few genuinely cheap hours. The hourly pattern points to an evening scarcity event rather than a uniform increase across all hours.
Montenegro’s BELEN base price rose to €312.80/MWh, with peak-load power at €347.4/MWh and an hourly maximum of €555.1/MWh at H18. The previous day’s maximum was €400/MWh. In Albania, ALPEX averaged €366.9/MWh, peak power reached €392.2/MWh and the evening maximum was €600/MWh at H18.
The highest prices clustering around H18 in Serbia, Montenegro and Albania reflected the same regional pressure as solar generation faded while evening demand remained high. Regional consumption was forecast to average 34,054 MW, up 740 MW from the previous day. Net imports were forecast to rise by 196 MW to 3,886 MW.
Solar output was forecast 360 MW higher, but wind generation fell by 436 MW, reducing a major source of flexible renewable supply later in the day. The additional solar generation did little to curb the daily average because much of it arrives when the system is relatively comfortable. Lower wind output matters more as solar generation disappears.
Greece retained a pronounced midday discount
Greece remained the clear exception, with HENEX averaging €238.80/MWh. That was almost €86/MWh below Hungary and more than €91/MWh below Serbia. Greek prices fell to a minimum of €32.3/MWh around H10 before reaching a maximum of €450/MWh at H18.
The hourly profile showed very cheap electricity around midday followed by a sharp evening repricing. Greece therefore held a large daily discount to the northern Balkans despite facing the same evening tightening.
Hungary and Germany moved closer in price
Hungarian HUPX rose €21.2/MWh to €324.58/MWh, while Germany’s price gained €65.6/MWh to €314.85/MWh. The Hungary-Germany spread narrowed to €9.73/MWh, a reduction of around €44/MWh in one session. The move largely erased the large Hungarian premium to Germany seen in previous sessions.
Germany’s hourly maximum reached €559.6/MWh, while HUPX peaked at €526.8/MWh; both highs came around the evening ramp. Romania and Bulgaria traded just €0.82/MWh and €4.45/MWh below HUPX, respectively. Serbia retained a €5.46/MWh premium to Hungary, indicating a slightly tighter balance in Serbia and the western Balkans even after the Central European rally.
Italy’s national day-ahead price was €278.47/MWh, around €46/MWh below Hungary and more than €34/MWh below Montenegro. Net electricity entering the wider Southeast European balance from Italy increased by 147 MW to around 593 MW. This was consistent with the economic incentive to move lower-priced Italian electricity towards the tighter Balkan market.
Forward prices and fuel costs also increased
Forward prices showed that traders were not treating the day-ahead rise as an isolated event. Hungarian Week 45 power gained €8.5/MWh to €315.50/MWh, while Week 46 rose €7.5 to €304.50/MWh. The November contract added €13/MWh to €295.50/MWh.
Fuel and carbon costs also increased: CEGH gas rose €4.8/MWh to €102.05/MWh, EU carbon allowances reached €89.1/t, and November coal advanced to €147.5/t. The regional pattern had Greece as a lower-priced market during solar hours and Italy as a lower-priced western supply source. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and North Macedonia converged around €320–330/MWh, while Albania could move sharply above the rest of the region when its balance tightened.
For Serbia and Montenegro, the price signal was the widening difference between midday and evening market conditions. Electricity was available in the region, but not always in the right market, across the right border or during the right hour. This imbalance, rather than simple annual energy scarcity, was becoming the defining price signal for Southeast European power trading.