Hydropower in South-East Europe in 2026 with Serbia as the anchor: A quantitative forecast linked to prices, trading and balancing value Read More »

Hydropower in South-East Europe in 2026 with Serbia as the anchor: A quantitative forecast linked to prices, trading and balancing value

Hydropower will be the decisive swing factor for South-East Europe in 2026 because it is simultaneously energy, seasonal storage, and the region’s cheapest source of flexibility. The market has increasingly learned that the same installed hydro fleet can produce two radically different economic outcomes depending on inflows: in a wet year, hydro compresses day-ahead prices, […]

Serbia’s gas system in 2026: Corridors, storage, market power and a quantitative outlook for 2026–2028 Read More »

Serbia’s gas system in 2026: Corridors, storage, market power and a quantitative outlook for 2026–2028

Serbia’s gas market is no longer a purely contractual story about volumes bought from one supplier and delivered through one route. It is becoming a system defined by three constraints that now dominate every economic outcome: how much gas Serbia can physically import through alternative corridors, how much it can withdraw from storage during winter

SEE gas infrastructure in 2026: LNG gateways, storage depth, market players, and the trends reshaping pricing and security Read More »

SEE gas infrastructure in 2026: LNG gateways, storage depth, market players, and the trends reshaping pricing and security

South-East Europe’s gas market has stopped behaving like a collection of national utilities buying pipeline molecules and passing them through regulated tariffs. It is turning into a corridor-and-liquidity system where the marginal price is increasingly set by LNG access, storage withdrawal rates, and cross-border interconnector capacity rather than by any single long-term contract. The region

Hungary’s two-track push in Serbia: How MOL and MVM are quietly building a regional energy “operating system” and what it means for gas Read More »

Hungary’s two-track push in Serbia: How MOL and MVM are quietly building a regional energy “operating system” and what it means for gas

Hungary’s expansion in Serbia is no longer a set of isolated deals. It is increasingly legible as a two-track strategy that uses MOL on the hydrocarbons and retail side, and MVM Group on the power, engineering, and system-integration side, with Serbia positioned as both a demand hub and a transit corridor between Central Europe and the wider Balkans. The

South-East Europe’s refining system and Serbia’s turning point under a MOL takeover Read More »

South-East Europe’s refining system and Serbia’s turning point under a MOL takeover

South-East European refining is not defined by refinery nameplates alone. It is defined by who controls crude access, who can finance inventories through cycles, and who owns the corridors that physically move oil. In this system, refineries behave less like isolated industrial plants and more like nodes inside a politically and financially constrained logistics network.

Gas under CBAM: Why Serbia’s transition fuel becomes a structural competitiveness risk Read More »

Gas under CBAM: Why Serbia’s transition fuel becomes a structural competitiveness risk

When the CBAM lens that has already reshaped thinking on green electricity is applied rigorously to natural gas, the conclusion is stark. Gas does not behave like a neutral transition fuel in a CBAM-constrained export economy. It behaves like a structural risk variable whose price volatility, emissions intensity, and perception by EU buyers increasingly determine

Serbia as a near-shore green manufacturing hub — what must change before 2030 Read More »

Serbia as a near-shore green manufacturing hub — what must change before 2030

Serbia still has a narrow but realistic window to position itself as a near-shore green manufacturing hub for EU supply chains. Geography, labour costs, industrial depth, and trade access are not the binding constraints. The binding constraint is energy credibility—specifically, whether Serbia can deliver reliable, scalable, and auditable green electricity to energy-intensive exporters under CBAM

Industrial PPAs in Serbia: Why price is secondary to shape, certainty and proof Read More »

Industrial PPAs in Serbia: Why price is secondary to shape, certainty and proof

For most of the last decade, power purchase agreements in Serbia were evaluated on a single dominant variable: price. The lowest strike won, and everything else was secondary. Under CBAM, that logic breaks down. For energy-intensive exporters, the commercial value of a PPA is no longer defined by how cheap the electricity looks on paper,

From MW to TWh: Why Serbia’s energy transition metrics are misleading exporters Read More »

From MW to TWh: Why Serbia’s energy transition metrics are misleading exporters

Serbia’s energy transition is still described almost entirely in megawatts. New projects are announced in MW, targets are framed in MW, and public debate treats capacity additions as if they were interchangeable with usable energy. For CBAM-exposed exporters, this framing is not just incomplete—it is actively misleading. What determines competitiveness under CBAM is not how

Wind as Serbia’s CBAM backbone: Why solar-heavy decarbonisation fails industrial buyers Read More »

Wind as Serbia’s CBAM backbone: Why solar-heavy decarbonisation fails industrial buyers

Serbia’s response to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is quietly drifting toward a solar-heavy narrative. This is understandable. Solar is modular, politically visible, quick to announce, and easy to frame in megawatts. But for CBAM-exposed industrial buyers, this approach is structurally flawed. It confuses installed capacity with delivered value and mistakes headline decarbonisation optics

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