Day-ahead power prices across Southeast Europe fell from Thursday’s extreme levels on 30 October, but prices in the eastern part of the region stayed close to €300/MWh. Lower renewable generation increased the need for imports.
Regional net imports rose by 1,316 MW day on day to an average of 4,995 MW, while forecast consumption edged down by 88 MW to 34,209 MW. Forecast solar output fell by 696 MW to 2,342 MW, and wind generation declined by almost 2 GW to 3,301 MW. Combined wind and solar availability was around 2.68 GW lower than a day earlier.
Average flows from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungary-SEE region increased by 1,045 MW to 4,438 MW, as imports from Italy rose by 88 MW to 580 MW. The greater reliance on cross-border supplies came despite broadly unchanged regional demand, with supply rather than consumption driving Friday’s tightness.
Eastern markets maintain price premiums
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload price dropped €18.5/MWh to €306.05/MWh. It remained above Germany at €268.62/MWh, Austria at €275.23/MWh and Italy at €274.04/MWh. The HUPX-Germany spread widened by €27.7/MWh to €37.43/MWh as German prices fell faster than Hungarian prices.
Prices in the eastern SEE markets remained clustered: Romania settled at €303.56/MWh, Bulgaria at €302.20/MWh, Serbia at €303.29/MWh and Albania at €302.02/MWh. Serbia’s price was down €26.8/MWh from Thursday, while Albania recorded the largest decline, falling €64.8/MWh.
Farther south, North Macedonia remained the region’s most expensive market at €321.66/MWh, followed by Montenegro at €313.98/MWh. Montenegro was among the few markets to rise, gaining €1.2/MWh day on day.
Greece moved against the direction of most regional markets, with HENEX rising €49/MWh to €287.75/MWh. Hungary’s premium over Greece narrowed to €18.30/MWh, compared with a spread almost €68/MWh wider a day earlier. Greece nevertheless remained materially cheaper than the eastern Balkan group.
Evening prices and Hungary’s supply balance
Hourly prices showed continued scarcity in the evening. On SEEPEX, Serbia’s base price of €303.3/MWh included a peak average of €331.3/MWh and a daily maximum of €416.3/MWh at H18. Montenegro reached €407.2/MWh at H18, while North Macedonia peaked at €460/MWh at the same hour.
Hungary’s average demand fell to 5,169 MW from 5,418 MW, but domestic generation also declined, to 3,141 MW from 3,504 MW. Net imports therefore averaged about 2,028 MW. Hungary exported significant volumes to Romania while importing electricity from Austria, Slovakia and other neighbouring markets.
Fuel prices continued to set a high underlying cost level. CEGH gas traded at €100.23/MWh, down €1.8/MWh on the day, while EU carbon allowances stood at €89.2/t. November gas was priced at €99.50/MWh and Q1 2027 at €98.50/MWh, keeping gas-fired generation expensive across the region.
Hungarian forward power prices stood at €313/MWh for Week 45, €310/MWh for Week 46 and €293/MWh for November. The HU-DE forward spread reached €63.5/MWh for Week 45 and €84/MWh for Week 46.
The trading signal for the end of October pointed to SEE remaining structurally short when renewable output weakens. Lower demand alone did not materially reduce prices as wind and solar generation fell, leaving Hungary and the Balkans competing for Central European imports. Eastern SEE prices consequently remained around €300/MWh, with premiums to Germany, Austria and Italy and particularly strong scarcity pricing during evening peak hours.