Southeast European day-ahead power markets moved in opposite directions on 3 November. Prices rose in Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Albania, while Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece recorded declines. Germany remained cheaper than all of these markets.
Western Balkan prices diverge from neighboring markets
Serbia’s SEEPEX base price increased by €11/MWh to €305.14/MWh. Montenegro rose by €15.5 to €302.80/MWh, while North Macedonia gained €9.3 to €302.97/MWh. Albania saw the largest increase, climbing €53.7/MWh to €313.65/MWh, the highest base price among the markets monitored.
By contrast, Hungary’s HUPX price fell by €13.1 to €297.53/MWh. Romania slipped to €297.00/MWh and Bulgaria to €296.65/MWh, while Greece dropped €45.4 to €267.32/MWh. Germany was substantially cheaper at €252.85/MWh.
The moves left Western Balkan markets trading at a premium to Hungary. Serbia was €7.60/MWh higher than HUPX, Montenegro was €5.26 higher and North Macedonia €5.43 higher; Albania’s premium exceeded €16/MWh. Greece, meanwhile, traded €30.21/MWh below Hungary.
Local supply-demand conditions and cross-border capacity appeared to exert more influence than a shared regional generation signal. Hungary also remained €44.69/MWh above Germany, preserving a substantial Central European east-west price differential.
Demand, imports and renewable output
Average regional electricity demand increased by 459 MW day on day to 35,116 MW. Net imports rose by 204 MW to 4,019 MW. Imports from the core Austrian and Slovak direction increased by 225 MW to 3,202 MW, reinforcing the region’s reliance on north-to-south inflows.
Renewable generation forecasts showed mixed movements. Wind output was forecast to rise by 942 MW to 6,115 MW, while solar generation fell by 559 MW to 1,318 MW. The increase in wind availability coincided with weaker solar production and higher consumption, leaving regional import requirements elevated.
Daily price profiles and forward power
Serbia recorded firm peak prices alongside its higher base price. SEEPEX’s base price reached €305.1/MWh, peak hours averaged €341.4/MWh and the daily maximum was €374.5/MWh. The base price was also above Serbia’s seven-day average of €296.9/MWh.
Montenegro showed a similar pattern, with BELEN rising to €302.8/MWh from €287.3/MWh a day earlier. Peak prices averaged €337/MWh and reached a daily maximum of €365/MWh.
Forward power contracts gave a different signal. Hungary’s Week 46 contract fell by €20.5 to €312.50/MWh, and December power declined by €21.5 to €265/MWh. Week 47 moved higher, gaining €8 to €298/MWh.
Fuel and carbon market movements
Gas prices weakened across the reported markets. Austrian CEGH gas fell by €6.3 to €99.05/MWh, Greek gas dropped €9.2 to €87.93/MWh, and December gas declined €9 to €96.50/MWh. December coal fell by €6 to €142.5, while EU carbon allowances moved higher, gaining €1.3 to €90.52/tonne.
Softer fuel and forward prices were reducing underlying cost pressure, but high import requirements and cross-border price separation were keeping Western Balkan day-ahead markets above the regional core. For Serbia and Montenegro, the immediate signal was a localized premium rather than a generalized European price surge.
Indicators to monitor include whether Albania’s sharp increase unwinds, whether Serbia and Montenegro retain their premiums to HUPX, and whether the Hungary-Germany spread narrows. The spread remained wide as regional demand and renewable output changed.