Electricity prices across southeastern Europe rose for delivery on 15 October, with Hungary and Serbia trading above €250/MWh. The move followed a reversal in Romania’s electricity balance, stronger regional demand and lower forecast wind generation. Cross-border trading spreads widened as day-ahead prices diverged between central and eastern markets and Greece.
The HUPX day-ahead baseload price increased by €28.9/MWh to €252.81/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX gained €18.1/MWh to €252.74/MWh, leaving the two markets closely aligned. Romania’s OPCOM advanced by €26.8/MWh to €248.44/MWh, while Bulgaria’s IBEX rose by €18.8/MWh to €233.29/MWh.
Albania recorded the largest daily change, with ALPEX jumping by €113.6/MWh to €249.56/MWh. Montenegro’s BELEN increased by €14/MWh to €223.17/MWh, while North Macedonia reached €222.30/MWh. The session also showed a widening divide between higher-priced central and eastern European markets and the comparatively cheaper Greek market.
Romania reverses from net exports to imports
Romania recorded a major change in its regional trading position, moving from scheduled net exports of 749 MW on 14 October to net imports of 629 MW on 15 October. This represented a 1,378 MW reversal in its daily average electricity balance. Romanian electricity consumption increased from 5,724 MW to 6,096 MW, while forecast domestic generation fell from 6,473 MW to 5,467 MW.
The higher demand and lower domestic output increased Romania’s reliance on electricity arriving through neighbouring systems, particularly Bulgaria. Scheduled commercial flows from Bulgaria into Romania rose to approximately 1,278 MW from 657 MW the previous day. At the same time, Romanian exports towards Hungary declined from 1,213 MW to 121 MW.
The flow pattern shifted supply available to central European markets and supported a stronger Romanian and Hungarian price relationship. Across Hungary and the wider SEE region, net electricity imports increased by 565 MW to 2,267 MW against forecast consumption of 32,017 MW, up 749 MW day on day. Imports from Austria and Slovakia towards Hungary and Slovenia rose to 2,661 MW, an increase of 890 MW.
Serbia’s deficit persists as prices stay among the highest
Serbia continued operating with a substantial electricity deficit despite higher domestic generation reducing scheduled imports. Forecast consumption rose to 3,975 MW from 3,820 MW the previous day. Domestic generation increased from 2,628 MW to 2,948 MW, lowering net imports from 1,192 MW to 1,027 MW.
Commercial schedules indicated Serbia importing an average of approximately 370 MW from Bulgaria, 354 MW from North Macedonia and 293 MW from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serbia also imported about 214 MW from Romania and around 183 MW from Montenegro. Serbia was simultaneously scheduled to export 476 MW towards Hungary.
SEEPEX remained among the highest-priced markets in the region despite stronger generation conditions. The market reached an hourly maximum of €368.6/MWh at hour 20 compared with a minimum of €189.9/MWh at hour 14. The nearly €179/MWh intraday spread reflected the value of flexible generation and demand response capability alongside battery storage.
Greek price weakness alongside shifting renewable output
Greece remained the region’s principal low-price market based on HENEX day-ahead baseload pricing at an average of €160.54/MWh. This was up by €21.6/MWh versus the previous session. The Hungarian premium over Greece widened to €92.28/MWh, while the Hungarian-German spread increased to €65.51/MWh compared with approximately €44.9/MWh a day earlier.
Greek prices reached zero during hour 14 before recovering to an evening maximum of €296.5/MWh. The Greek peak-period average was €97.3/MWh compared with an off-peak average of €223.7/MWh. Greece was scheduled to export approximately 1,700 MW on a net basis including substantial flows towards Bulgaria and North Macedonia.
Bulgaria moved from a net import position of 74 MW into exports of 717 MW supported by higher forecast generation levels. Regional renewable forecasts showed solar production expected at an average of 5,932 MW, up by 2,631 MW. Wind generation was forecast to fall by 1,571 MW to 5,114 MW.
The combined increase in solar provided only partial offset versus changes in demand and other generation sources. Stronger solar availability did not prevent broad increases in day-ahead baseload prices because higher midday renewable output can depress hourly quotations without materially reducing evening scarcity or dispatchable capacity needs.
Forward spreads widen; carbon allowances ease slightly
Forward electricity markets continued pricing regional risk premiums through contracts linked to Hungary and Germany comparisons. The Hungarian week 43 contract rose to €270/MWh compared with €201.50/MWh for the corresponding German contract, implying a forward premium of €68.50/MWh. Hungary’s November baseload contract stood at €242.50/MWh against Germany at €195/MWh.
The Hungarian calendar-year 2027 baseload contract was quoted at €168.50/MWh versus Germany’s €145.50/MWh for the same period reference point used in the comparison. EU carbon allowances were quoted at approximately €87.14 per tonne, slightly lower on the day, while November coal futures declined to €148 per tonne. Despite these modest easings in carbon and coal indicators, regional electricity spot prices increased sharply.
Batteries expand; cross-border flows remain decisive for spreads
BELEN’s baseload price was €223.17/MWh for Montenegro on the day-ahead basis referenced in the session data set provided here. Montenegro’s discount was approximately €29.57/MWh against Serbia and about €29.64/MWh against Hungary as both domestic consumption and generation declined during the period described.
Average demand in Montenegro fell from 420 MW to 362 MW while generation decreased from 456 MW to 378 MW, leaving scheduled net exports of approximately 16 MW down from 36 MW previously referenced for comparison within the same system context provided here. Schedules indicated average imports of approximately 192 MW from Italy alongside exports of about 183 MW towards Serbia.
Southeastern European hourly price differences were accompanied by cross-border positioning considerations that cannot be determined using baseload spreads alone because hourly differentials depend on transmission allocation and congestion charges alongside contracted delivery positions.
Romania is developing additional flexibility through battery projects referenced in regional market reporting for this period: Helleniq Energy plans at least 500 MW of battery storage over the next three years and R.Power is progressing a 100 MW/200 MWh standalone battery project at Studina alongside its larger Scornicesti development.
The session data also highlighted that wide spot spreads do not automatically translate into bankable storage revenues due to factors including round-trip efficiency, battery degradation, network charges and imbalance settlement rules alongside trading restrictions.