For delivery on Sept. 29, Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices moved in opposite directions across the region, with increases in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and parts of the northern Balkans. Serbia, Greece, Montenegro and North Macedonia remained at deep discounts versus nearby markets. The split coincided with changes in regional physical flows and cross-border trading patterns.
Hungary’s HUPX base price rose €8.9/MWh to €170.11/MWh. Romania climbed €15.6/MWh to €169.92/MWh and Bulgaria gained €15.7/MWh to €161.82/MWh. Croatia reached €172.76/MWh and Slovenia was at €174.01/MWh.
By contrast, Serbia’s SEEPEX slipped to €110.06/MWh. Greece fell to €121.97/MWh, Montenegro to €130.96/MWh and North Macedonia to €132.21/MWh. Albania traded at €147.58/MWh, around €23 below Hungary.
The regional spread remained wide, with Serbia trading almost €60/MWh below Hungary and Greece about €48/MWh below HUPX. Montenegro and North Macedonia were around €38-39/MWh cheaper than Hungary. Italy averaged about €203/MWh, roughly €93 above Serbia and about €81 above Greece.
Hungary-Germany spread widens after physical balance shift
The strongest move in the bilateral pricing pattern was between Hungary and Germany. German day-ahead prices fell to around €165.83/MWh, leaving Hungary about €4.3/MWh higher on Sept. 29 delivery. A day earlier, Hungary had traded roughly €34/MWh below Germany, implying a swing of nearly €39/MWh in the bilateral spread.
Austria was at €180.55/MWh while Italy remained the highest-priced major market at about €203/MWh. The pricing reversal aligned with a change in regional physical balance, as combined Hungary and SEE consumption increased to 29,105 MW, up around 740 MW day on day.
Over the same period, the region shifted from a net export position of 1,288 MW on Sept. 28 to net imports of 555 MW on Sept. 29, a swing of more than 1.8 GW. Imports from the Austria-Slovakia/core direction reached about 1,367 MW, reversing the previous day’s 501 MW flow in the opposite direction.
Hungary remained a net importer of roughly 1,007 MW versus 731 MW a day earlier. Domestic consumption increased to 4,516 MW against generation of around 3,509 MW. Commercial flows showed particularly strong imports from Slovakia and Romania, while Hungary continued exporting towards Croatia and Slovenia.
Northern and southern markets show different price compression patterns
Romania stayed a net exporter but its surplus fell sharply to about 187 MW from 866 MW on Monday. Bulgaria’s exports declined to 571 MW from 1,212 MW previously reported for Monday’s comparison point. These reductions tightened the northern and eastern SEE balance as regional demand recovered from lower weekend levels.
In southern markets, Greece fell by €13.1/MWh to €121.97/MWh despite exporting more than 1 GW on average. Its hourly profile showed peak-period pricing at only €55.7/MWh versus an off-peak average of €188.2/MWh, with the minimum hourly price reaching zero.
Serbia’s baseload level was also lower on average at €110.1/MWh, with peak power at only €103.1/MWh and a daily minimum of €9.8/MWh. The maximum hourly price still reached €240.1/MWh, indicating volatility despite the low daily average.
Montenegro dropped by more than €34/MWh to €131/MWh and North Macedonia fell by about €18/MWh to €132.2/MWh for Sept. 29 delivery. The lowest-price hours occurred at different times: Greece’s deepest compression was during the solar-heavy daytime period while Serbia’s minimum was recorded in early hours.
Italy remains key outlet; forward prices point to firmness in Hungary
Italy continued as the main high-price destination for surplus SEE electricity, with regional exports towards Italy averaging about 1,245 MW while Italy traded around €203/MWh. Montenegro’s interconnector flows reflected this pull as it exported about 532 MW towards Italy on a baseload basis even while its overall system remained a small net importer.
The country’s flows were described as drawing electricity from neighboring Balkan systems and sending power west through the submarine link toward Italy on Sept. 29 delivery conditions.
Forward markets indicated continued firmness in Hungary: Hungarian Week 41 rose to around €202/MWh, Week 42 to about €205/MWh and October to around €204.50/MWh. However, forward Hungary-Germany premiums narrowed compared with earlier pricing relationships.
Gas prices remained elevated with CEGH around €74.75/MWh, while EUA carbon allowances were near €86.17/t for the same period referenced by forward market conditions.
The Sept. 29 session therefore reflected a fragmented regional structure where transmission capacity increasingly determined value rather than a uniform tightening across all markets mentioned in the day-ahead splits.