On Sept. 25, Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices stayed elevated as wind generation fell sharply and regional balances tightened, increasing reliance on imports. Most markets cleared above €200/MWh, with Albania leading at €223.92/MWh. Hungary’s premium to Germany narrowed as the Hungary day-ahead price declined while German prices rose.
Albania cleared at €223.92/MWh, followed by Romania at €219.85/MWh and Hungary at €219.62/MWh. Bulgaria settled at €216.50/MWh, Greece at €213.62/MWh, North Macedonia at €211.32/MWh, Serbia at €207.90/MWh and Croatia at €205.84/MWh. Montenegro remained below the regional cluster at €190.98/MWh.
Price changes across the region were mixed on the day. HUPX fell by €19.70/MWh and Romania dropped by €12.70/MWh, while Greece increased by €38/MWh. Serbia gained €20.20/MWh, North Macedonia rose by €15/MWh and Albania added €13/MWh.
Regional balance tightens as wind output drops
The main driver was a deterioration in the regional generation balance. Electricity consumption across Hungary and SEE increased to around 29.94 GW, while generation declined by more than 1.2 GW versus the previous day. Net imports rose by 886 MW to 3.57 GW, with imports from the Central European core increasing by more than 500 MW to 2.73 GW.
Wind generation accounted for most of the tightening, with regional wind output falling by almost 1.6 GW to 2.14 GW, down more than 40% in a single session. Solar generation also eased to around 5.27 GW. Dispatchable plants increased output but did not fully offset the renewable decline.
Gas-fired generation rose by about 330 MW to 4.43 GW, while hydro increased by around 210 MW to 3.72 GW. Coal production was little changed and nuclear generation remained broadly stable.
Hungary-Germany spread compresses while imports remain necessary
The tightening occurred alongside a substantial narrowing of the Hungary-Germany differential. German day-ahead power rose to around €176.63/MWh, while HUPX declined to €219.62/MWh. This cut the Hungarian premium to about €43/MWh, from more than €100/MWh a day earlier.
The compression reduced the immediate price incentive for west-to-east trading but did not remove SEE’s physical requirement for imports. Hungary remained structurally short, with consumption of about 4.74 GW against domestic generation of roughly 3.39 GW, resulting in net imports of approximately 1.35 GW.
Hungary also continued to function as both an importing market and an important transit point for regional flows. Romania recorded one of the largest national deficits, with consumption reaching around 5.70 GW while generation fell to 4.13 GW.
This widened Romania’s net imports to about 1.57 GW from just under 1 GW a day earlier, keeping OPCOM closely aligned with HUPX with only around €0.23/MWh separating them.
Greece shifts back into imports; Serbia improves its physical balance
Greece swung sharply toward imports as its system moved from an average net export position of around 452 MW to net imports of approximately 228 MW. Generation dropped by almost 800 MW to about 5.14 GW. The tighter balance coincided with the strongest day-on-day price increase in the region, lifting HENEX to €213.62/MWh.
Serbia remained a net importer but improved its physical balance, with consumption rising to around 3.48 GW and generation increasing to approximately 2.95 GW. Average net imports narrowed to 531 MW from 628 MW the previous day.
Despite this improvement, SEEPEX increased to €207.90/MWh, about €11.70/MWh below HUPX, leaving Serbia cheaper than Hungary even after its domestic clearing price rose.
Bulgaria’s exports fall as domestic conditions change
Bulgaria remained one of the region’s important exporting systems, but average exports dropped sharply to around 706 MW. Exports were down from more than 1.5 GW a day earlier as domestic consumption increased and generation declined.
The Sept. 25 session underscored how renewable volatility can shape short-term SEE electricity prices through cross-border flows and import requirements, including when stronger gas and hydro output coincides with weaker wind generation.
With Romania and Hungary carrying large structural deficits and Greece moving back into imports, regional prices remained exposed to further weak-wind periods on the day assessed; HU-DE spread compression reduced one layer of market stress while the underlying physical balance across SEE stayed tight.