Gross scheduled electricity exchanges between the Western Balkans Six and neighbouring EU markets fell 17.8% in January–September 2026, while regional day-ahead trading volumes rose, according to the Energy Community Secretariat’s third-quarter 2026 assessment. The figures show organised-market activity expanding even as scheduled cross-border flows remained below 2025 levels, amid carbon-related costs for electricity transactions with the European Union.
Exchanges were 14.3% lower year on year in the third quarter, although they recovered 8.6% from the previous quarter. The assessment covers electricity trading in the quarter and compares January–September 2026 with the corresponding period in 2025.
Day-ahead markets and carbon costs
Day-ahead volumes on SEEPEX, MEPX, ALPEX and MEMO reached approximately 2.97 TWh in the third quarter, up 26.7% year on year. The four organised electricity markets recorded higher trading while scheduled exchanges with neighbouring EU markets remained below their 2025 level.
Across eight Western Balkan–EU electricity price pairs, absolute hourly price differences exceeded €20/MWh in 53.9% of third-quarter hours, compared with 21.7% a year earlier. The assessment notes that wider wholesale price spreads may not provide an attractive trading margin once applicable carbon obligations and delivery costs are included.
The European Commission set the third-quarter 2026 Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certificate price at €82.32 per tonne of CO₂, up from €75.28 in the second quarter. The actual cost of electricity imports depends on the applicable emissions methodology, eligible deductions and other regulatory conditions.
Traders need to compare EU wholesale revenues with procurement costs, transmission charges, losses, balancing exposure and CBAM-related liabilities, the assessment says. A spread that previously supported cross-border arbitrage may no longer leave an attractive commercial margin after those costs and obligations are taken into account.
Export flows vary by route
Scheduled electricity exports from Serbia to Hungary declined 21.6%, despite a wider wholesale price spread between the two markets. Scheduled exports from Montenegro to Italy increased approximately 80%, moving in the opposite direction.
The contrasting routes illustrate that CBAM exposure does not determine commercial flows independently of other factors. The assessment also identifies hydrology, trading positions, transmission capacity and contractual arrangements as influences on exchanges. Generation, demand and available interconnection capacity also affect trading patterns, so the observed changes cannot be attributed exclusively to CBAM.
Western Balkan generators may face a growing distinction between electricity that can be sold domestically or regionally and output that can economically reach EU customers. The assessment identifies a potential structural discount for exports from markets with carbon-intensive generation mixes, or where low-carbon production cannot meet requirements for recognition of actual emissions.
Wholesale prices, transmission access and verified carbon characteristics are increasingly interconnected commercial variables, according to the report. For Serbia, Montenegro and the wider Western Balkans, the challenge is preserving efficient electricity trade as the regulatory treatment of carbon can affect whether cross-border transactions are profitable.