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Cross-border interdependence as the dominant trading constraint in South-East Europe Read More »

Cross-border interdependence as the dominant trading constraint in South-East Europe

South-East Europe has crossed a structural boundary where national supply–demand balances no longer determine market outcomes on their own. Power trading, price formation, and risk management are now governed primarily by cross-border interdependence—by whether electricity can move across constrained corridors at the hours when it is needed most. This shift has unfolded gradually, but its […]

Coal phase-out as a cross-border shock to power trading dynamics Read More »

Coal phase-out as a cross-border shock to power trading dynamics

Coal phase-out in South-East Europe is often discussed as a domestic policy pathway, a sequence of unit closures aligned with decarbonisation targets and compliance timetables. In market reality, it functions as a cross-border shock that propagates through transmission corridors, reorders price hierarchies, and redefines the risk profile of trading books across the region. What matters

SEE’s shrinking dispatchable core and the repricing of regional power risk Read More »

SEE’s shrinking dispatchable core and the repricing of regional power risk

South-East Europe is undergoing a structural transformation that is not yet fully reflected in headline adequacy statistics but is already deeply embedded in power prices, forward curves, and congestion behaviour. The region’s dispatchable core—the combination of coal, lignite, hydro flexibility, and synchronous thermal capacity that historically anchored reliability—is shrinking faster than market participants have recalibrated

Serbia versus Romania: How coal retirements are redrawing regional power flows Read More »

Serbia versus Romania: How coal retirements are redrawing regional power flows

The divergence between Serbia and Romania in the 2025–2028 period marks one of the most consequential structural shifts in South-East Europe’s power system. While both countries entered the decade with comparable roles as regional anchors—large thermal fleets, significant hydro assets, and strong cross-border interconnections—their trajectories have separated sharply as Romania accelerates coal retirements and Serbia

SEE power trading prices in 2026: A fuel-CO₂-hydro model for thermal dispatch, cross-border spreads and coal supply risk Read More »

SEE power trading prices in 2026: A fuel-CO₂-hydro model for thermal dispatch, cross-border spreads and coal supply risk

South-East Europe’s 2026 power price formation will be dominated by a three-variable stack that has become more binding than any single national policy lever: the European gas price level that sets the marginal fuel cost for the region’s gas fleets, the CO₂ price that lifts the thermal floor in every EU-linked bidding zone and therefore

SEE thermal power and coal in 2026: A quantified forecast linked to hydro swings, CO₂ pricing, coal mining supply, and regional trading Read More »

SEE thermal power and coal in 2026: A quantified forecast linked to hydro swings, CO₂ pricing, coal mining supply, and regional trading

Thermal power in South-East Europe in 2026 will not be determined by a single “coal versus renewables” narrative. It will be determined by how much hydropower the region actually receives, how high the CO₂ price floor sits across European-linked markets, how reliably coal mining can deliver lignite tonnage to power plants, and how much cross-border

Hydropower in South-East Europe in 2026 with Serbia as the anchor: A quantitative forecast linked to prices, trading and balancing value Read More »

Hydropower in South-East Europe in 2026 with Serbia as the anchor: A quantitative forecast linked to prices, trading and balancing value

Hydropower will be the decisive swing factor for South-East Europe in 2026 because it is simultaneously energy, seasonal storage, and the region’s cheapest source of flexibility. The market has increasingly learned that the same installed hydro fleet can produce two radically different economic outcomes depending on inflows: in a wet year, hydro compresses day-ahead prices,

SEE gas infrastructure in 2026: LNG gateways, storage depth, market players, and the trends reshaping pricing and security Read More »

SEE gas infrastructure in 2026: LNG gateways, storage depth, market players, and the trends reshaping pricing and security

South-East Europe’s gas market has stopped behaving like a collection of national utilities buying pipeline molecules and passing them through regulated tariffs. It is turning into a corridor-and-liquidity system where the marginal price is increasingly set by LNG access, storage withdrawal rates, and cross-border interconnector capacity rather than by any single long-term contract. The region

South-East Europe’s refining system and Serbia’s turning point under a MOL takeover Read More »

South-East Europe’s refining system and Serbia’s turning point under a MOL takeover

South-East European refining is not defined by refinery nameplates alone. It is defined by who controls crude access, who can finance inventories through cycles, and who owns the corridors that physically move oil. In this system, refineries behave less like isolated industrial plants and more like nodes inside a politically and financially constrained logistics network.

How U.S. energy strategy is reshaping Southeast Europe’s gas market Read More »

How U.S. energy strategy is reshaping Southeast Europe’s gas market

Southeast Europe’s gas market entered 2025 in a structurally different position from where it stood only a few years earlier. The transformation has been driven less by short-term price movements and more by a deliberate geopolitical and infrastructure strategy in which the United States has assumed a central role. The November 2025 analysis by the

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