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Southeastern Europe in the EU energy security framework: Implications of SWD(2025) 435 for gas, power and regional resilience Read More »

Southeastern Europe in the EU energy security framework: Implications of SWD(2025) 435 for gas, power and regional resilience

The European Commission’s Staff Working Document SWD(2025) 435 represents the first comprehensive fitness check of the EU’s modern energy-security architecture, assessing how the Gas Security of Supply Regulation and the Electricity Risk-Preparedness Regulation functioned under the stress of the 2021–2023 energy crisis and how they will need to evolve in a structurally different energy system. While the document is formally focused […]

Why gas still decides competitiveness in South-East Europe Read More »

Why gas still decides competitiveness in South-East Europe

Competitiveness in South-East Europe’s energy-intensive economy is no longer determined by average electricity prices or by the headline cost of fuels. It is determined by how systems behave under stress, and by which countries, companies, and sites can absorb that stress without catastrophic price outcomes. In that environment, gas remains the decisive variable—not because it dominates

Carbon convergence makes gas more important, not less, in South-East Europe Read More »

Carbon convergence makes gas more important, not less, in South-East Europe

Carbon convergence across Europe is widely framed as a force that will marginalise gas over time. In South-East Europe, the opposite effect dominates the medium-term reality. As carbon costs rise and coal and lignite exit faster than grids and flexibility can be rebuilt, gas becomes more important to price formation, system stability, and volatility management—not because it

Trading the gas–power interface: Where South-East Europe’s volatility is actually made Read More »

Trading the gas–power interface: Where South-East Europe’s volatility is actually made

In South-East Europe, most of the meaningful volatility is not created in outright gas markets or in flat power positions. It is created at the interface between gas and electricity, in the narrow set of hours when fuel deliverability, power system constraints, and market design collide. Traders and industrial buyers who focus on average prices or

Industrial gas contracting in a power-dominated risk environment Read More »

Industrial gas contracting in a power-dominated risk environment

Industrial gas contracting in South-East Europe has entered a regime where electricity risk, not gas price risk, is the dominant cost driver, even for buyers whose core exposure appears to be fuel. Gas contracts that optimise average €/MWh outcomes increasingly fail to protect budgets because gas now transmits risk into power markets through marginality, deliverability limits,

Gas-fired capacity as regional system insurance and its chronic underpayment problem Read More »

Gas-fired capacity as regional system insurance and its chronic underpayment problem

Gas-fired generation in South-East Europe no longer earns its keep by running often. It earns it by being there when nothing else works. In market terms, these plants function as regional system insurance: they suppress tail risk, stabilise frequency, and prevent cascading failures during rare but severe stress events. Yet remuneration frameworks still pay them as if

When power prices decouple from gas and why it happens in South-East Europe first Read More »

When power prices decouple from gas and why it happens in South-East Europe first

In mature power systems, electricity prices tend to track gas costs with reasonable consistency. Gas may not always be marginal, but when it is, price relationships behave predictably. South-East Europe increasingly breaks that rule. The region is where gas–power decoupling appears first, most violently, and most persistently, even in periods when gas prices are stable. This

Gas as a volatility multiplier in congested power systems Read More »

Gas as a volatility multiplier in congested power systems

In South-East Europe, gas does not merely influence electricity prices through marginal cost. It multiplies volatility by interacting with structural congestion in the power grid. When gas tightness coincides with constrained transmission, the price impact is no longer incremental; it becomes discontinuous. This interaction explains why electricity markets across the region experience abrupt price separations and extreme

Gas storage as regional insurance, not seasonal inventory Read More »

Gas storage as regional insurance, not seasonal inventory

Gas storage in South-East Europe is still widely discussed as a question of how much gas is in the ground. Markets, however, increasingly price storage based on how fast that gas can be mobilised when power systems lose flexibility. The distinction is critical. In this region, storage does not function primarily as a seasonal arbitrage tool; it functions as regional

When LNG stops being a safety valve in South-East Europe Read More »

When LNG stops being a safety valve in South-East Europe

Liquefied natural gas is widely perceived as the ultimate backstop for gas-constrained power systems: flexible, global, and theoretically unconstrained by pipeline politics. In South-East Europe, that perception is increasingly at odds with market outcomes. LNG does provide strategic diversification, but it fails as an operational safety valve during the exact moments when power prices break away from

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