SEE

Baseload industry meets variable PPAs: A structural mismatch in the SEE power system Read More »

Baseload industry meets variable PPAs: A structural mismatch in the SEE power system

For decades, industrial electricity demand in South-East Europe was shaped around one implicit assumption: power would be available when needed, at broadly stable prices, and with limited intraday differentiation. Steel mills, cement plants, chemical facilities, paper producers, food processors, and large fabrication plants built operating models around continuous or semi-continuous load profiles. Electricity was treated […]

Industrial power buying in SEE is broken – and what replaces it Read More »

Industrial power buying in SEE is broken – and what replaces it

For more than two decades, industrial electricity procurement in South-East Europe followed a relatively simple logic. Secure a long-term supply contract, prioritise price level over structure, and treat electricity as a predictable operating cost rather than a strategic risk variable. Even when liberalisation progressed and exchanges emerged, most industrial buyers continued to anchor decisions around

Storage and balancing economics in an Adriatic-linked SEE market, 2030–2040 Read More »

Storage and balancing economics in an Adriatic-linked SEE market, 2030–2040

The Montenegro–Italy electricity market coupling does more than integrate two markets. It reshapes the economics of flexibility across Southeast Europe, particularly in relation to storage and balancing. As renewable penetration accelerates and price volatility shifts from energy scarcity to flexibility scarcity, the Adriatic corridor emerges as a focal point for storage value creation. Italy’s power

From arbitrage to algorithms: How market coupling reshapes SEE power desks Read More »

From arbitrage to algorithms: How market coupling reshapes SEE power desks

The transition from explicit capacity allocation to market coupling between Montenegro and Italy marks a decisive shift in how electricity trading value is created in Southeast Europe. It represents the end of a trading model built around physical control of interconnection capacity and the rise of one centred on data, forecasting and algorithmic optimisation. For

The Adriatic price axis: How Montenegro–Italy coupling creates a new European electricity corridor Read More »

The Adriatic price axis: How Montenegro–Italy coupling creates a new European electricity corridor

The coupling of Montenegro’s electricity market with Italy’s marks the emergence of a new structural feature in Europe’s power market architecture: an Adriatic price axis linking a Mediterranean EU core market directly with the Western Balkans. This development does not simply improve cross-border trade efficiency. It reshapes how prices form, how risk propagates, and how

SEE oil forward curve to 2030: Country overlays, execution risk, and pricingregimes in a constrained regional market Read More »

SEE oil forward curve to 2030: Country overlays, execution risk, and pricingregimes in a constrained regional market

By 2030, the southeast European oil forward curve can no longer be understood as a single regional construct. What may appear as a unified market anchored to Brent is, in reality, a layered system of country-specific execution curves, each responding differently to base, tight, and stress conditions. Flat prices remain a reference point, but they

SEE oil trading outlook 2026–2030: Flows, spreads, freight,and optionality in a constrained Europe Read More »

SEE oil trading outlook 2026–2030: Flows, spreads, freight,and optionality in a constrained Europe

Between 2026 and 2030, Southeast Europe’s oil market will be shaped less by broad price direction and more by structural constraints on flows, freight, and optionality. The region is evolving from a peripheral arbitrage zone into a structurally constrained end-market, with significant implications for spreads and risk management. Sanctions enforcement will continue to fragment liquidity.

Refining margins turn SEE into a residual market during tight cycles Read More »

Refining margins turn SEE into a residual market during tight cycles

High European refining margins are increasingly reshaping supply allocation, with refiners prioritizing markets that offer the highest liquidity and netbacks. In this context, Southeast Europe often becomes a residual market, receiving barrels later and at higher premiums. This pattern is not merely cyclical. As European refining capacity remains structurally tight, SEE markets are exposed to

A trader-led structural model with LNG and power price transmission (2026–2030) Read More »

A trader-led structural model with LNG and power price transmission (2026–2030)

In South-East Europe, gas–power interaction has moved decisively beyond simple fuel substitution logic. Spark spreads now act as the principal transmission mechanism of volatility, determining not how much gas is consumed, but when gas-fired generation becomes marginal and how quickly global gas signals propagate into local power markets. Across Serbia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, North Macedonia,

Liquidity, LNG volatility, basis risk and power price transmission Read More »

Liquidity, LNG volatility, basis risk and power price transmission

South-East Europe’s gas markets have quietly crossed a structural threshold. What once functioned as a peripheral extension of continental Europe’s pipeline system is now fully embedded in a globalised gas-LNG-power complex, where price signals travel faster than molecules and volatility is imported as much through financial markets as through physical flows. For traders operating in

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