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SEE renewables are expanding faster than stability — and Serbia now sits inside the volatility engine Read More »

SEE renewables are expanding faster than stability — and Serbia now sits inside the volatility engine

South-East Europe is accelerating its renewable transition. Solar fields rise across Greece and Bulgaria, wind projects return to Romania’s agenda, battery pipelines begin appearing in policy documents, and Western Balkan governments increasingly wrap their industrial and geopolitical narratives in the language of decarbonisation. Looked at from a distance, the region appears to be moving decisively […]

Short-term disruptions, long-term consequences Read More »

Short-term disruptions, long-term consequences

Energy markets are often described as short-memory systems. Prices spike, conditions normalise, and attention moves on. This perception is increasingly misleading. In a tightly coupled energy system, short-term disruptions rarely fade without leaving structural traces. Even when prices retreat and flows stabilise, the system that emerges afterward is subtly but materially different from the one

Volatility without borders Read More »

Volatility without borders

Volatility used to be treated as a market-specific phenomenon. Electricity was volatile because demand had to be balanced in real time. Gas was volatile seasonally, shaped by weather and storage cycles. Oil was volatile episodically, driven by geopolitics and global supply disruptions. These forms of volatility were analysed separately, hedged separately, and largely expected to

South-East Europe as Europe’s stress test: What the region reveals about the energy transition Read More »

South-East Europe as Europe’s stress test: What the region reveals about the energy transition

South-East Europe does not sit on the periphery of Europe’s energy system. It sits at its edge in a different sense: the edge where constraints bind first, where volatility appears earliest, and where systemic assumptions are tested under real operating conditions rather than in models. The region is not an exception to Europe’s energy transition.

One energy system, three fuels: Why Europe no longer has separate power, gas, and oil markets Read More »

One energy system, three fuels: Why Europe no longer has separate power, gas, and oil markets

For most of the modern history of European energy policy, electricity, natural gas, and oil were treated as adjacent but fundamentally separate domains. They were regulated through different frameworks, traded on different venues, analysed by different expert communities, and governed by distinct political narratives. Electricity was a question of grids, generators, and marginal pricing. Gas

From power flows to industrial costs: How EU electricity volatility reshapes competitiveness in southeast Europe Read More »

From power flows to industrial costs: How EU electricity volatility reshapes competitiveness in southeast Europe

For decades, electricity was treated by industry as a predictable input. Prices fluctuated within narrow bands, supply security was largely taken for granted, and energy strategy focused on efficiency rather than exposure. In southeast Europe, this assumption underpinned the region’s industrial model. Competitive labour, proximity to EU markets and relatively stable power costs supported metals,

Flexibility without reward: Why southeast Europe balances Europe’s power system but captures none of the value Read More »

Flexibility without reward: Why southeast Europe balances Europe’s power system but captures none of the value

In the emerging architecture of Europe’s electricity system, flexibility has become the most valuable attribute a power asset can possess. The ability to ramp output quickly, absorb surplus generation, stabilise frequency, or respond to sudden imbalances now matters more than raw installed capacity. Yet while flexibility has become scarce, it has not become fairly priced.

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