SEE

CBAM exposure of electricity exports in South-East Europe: Quantified impacts, verification pathways and investment risk in Serbia Read More »

CBAM exposure of electricity exports in South-East Europe: Quantified impacts, verification pathways and investment risk in Serbia

The application of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to electricity imports from South-East Europe introduces a quantifiable financial and structural risk to the region’s power sector precisely at the point when large-scale capital deployment is required for decarbonisation and grid integration. In Serbia, electricity is not only a domestic utility service but a traded commodity […]

Exporting volatility: How SEE power risk is absorbed by core EU markets Read More »

Exporting volatility: How SEE power risk is absorbed by core EU markets

South-East Europe’s electricity markets do not exist in isolation. By 2025, they were tightly interwoven with Central and Western Europe through physical interconnectors, price coupling, and financial hedging flows. This integration brought efficiency and transparency, but it also created an asymmetric outcome: SEE increasingly exported volatility, while core EU markets absorbed it. The mechanism was subtle

Why intraday liquidity growth did not reduce long-term power risk Read More »

Why intraday liquidity growth did not reduce long-term power risk

By the end of 2025, South-East Europe could point to an undeniable achievement. Intraday electricity trading volumes across the region had reached levels that would have seemed unattainable only a few years earlier. Record after record was set, particularly in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Serbia. Market operators and policymakers often presented this surge as evidence

What “fully hedged” really meant for SEE industrial buyers in 2025 Read More »

What “fully hedged” really meant for SEE industrial buyers in 2025

In boardrooms across South-East Europe, 2025 delivered an uncomfortable realisation. Many industrial consumers entered the year believing their electricity exposure was under control. Hedge ratios approached 100 %, forward contracts were in place, and budgets appeared secure. Yet when delivery concluded and financials were reviewed, results told a different story. Portfolios labelled “fully hedged” had still

OPCOM and IBEX: Strong price formation, weak risk absorption Read More »

OPCOM and IBEX: Strong price formation, weak risk absorption

By 2025, Romania and Bulgaria stood out in South-East Europe for one specific reason: they had achieved scale in spot electricity trading that many neighbouring markets could not match. Monthly volumes on both exchanges regularly reached terawatt-hour levels, anchoring price discovery across the eastern Balkans. Yet this success masked a fundamental weakness. Despite impressive turnover,

HUPX as the regional hedge engine: Capabilities, limits and spillovers Read More »

HUPX as the regional hedge engine: Capabilities, limits and spillovers

By 2025, one market had assumed a role in South-East Europe that extended far beyond its national boundaries. Hungary’s power exchange became the region’s primary hedge engine not because it was flawless, but because it was the only venue capable of absorbing risk at scale. For utilities, traders, and large industrial buyers operating across SEE,

The hidden cost of power hedging in SEE: Quantifying basis risk In 2025 Read More »

The hidden cost of power hedging in SEE: Quantifying basis risk In 2025

By 2025, the most expensive component of power risk management in South-East Europe was no longer outright price risk. It was basis risk. This risk did not appear on invoices, but it accumulated silently in financial results, eroding the effectiveness of hedging strategies that were theoretically sound yet practically incomplete. Basis risk arises when the price

Why South-East Europe still cannot hedge its own power risk Read More »

Why South-East Europe still cannot hedge its own power risk

South-East Europe entered 2025 with a surface-level appearance of market maturity. Day-ahead and intraday trading volumes reached record levels across multiple exchanges, price coupling expanded, and forward products existed in most national markets. Yet beneath this visible progress, a structural weakness remained unresolved: the region still could not internalise its own electricity price risk. Instead,

Southeastern Europe in the EU energy security framework: Implications of SWD(2025) 435 for gas, power and regional resilience Read More »

Southeastern Europe in the EU energy security framework: Implications of SWD(2025) 435 for gas, power and regional resilience

The European Commission’s Staff Working Document SWD(2025) 435 represents the first comprehensive fitness check of the EU’s modern energy-security architecture, assessing how the Gas Security of Supply Regulation and the Electricity Risk-Preparedness Regulation functioned under the stress of the 2021–2023 energy crisis and how they will need to evolve in a structurally different energy system. While the document is formally focused

Why gas still decides competitiveness in South-East Europe Read More »

Why gas still decides competitiveness in South-East Europe

Competitiveness in South-East Europe’s energy-intensive economy is no longer determined by average electricity prices or by the headline cost of fuels. It is determined by how systems behave under stress, and by which countries, companies, and sites can absorb that stress without catastrophic price outcomes. In that environment, gas remains the decisive variable—not because it dominates

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