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Why most industrial PPAs in SEE fail on cash flow, not on sustainability Read More »

Why most industrial PPAs in SEE fail on cash flow, not on sustainability

When industrial power purchase agreements are discussed in South-East Europe, the conversation almost always starts with sustainability. Emissions reduction, green certificates, alignment with EU policy, and reputational benefits dominate both internal presentations and external communication. In many cases, these objectives are genuinely achieved. The electricity delivered under PPAs is renewable, traceable, and compliant with decarbonisation […]

Baseload industry meets variable PPAs: A structural mismatch in the SEE power system Read More »

Baseload industry meets variable PPAs: A structural mismatch in the SEE power system

For decades, industrial electricity demand in South-East Europe was shaped around one implicit assumption: power would be available when needed, at broadly stable prices, and with limited intraday differentiation. Steel mills, cement plants, chemical facilities, paper producers, food processors, and large fabrication plants built operating models around continuous or semi-continuous load profiles. Electricity was treated

Industrial power buying in SEE is broken – and what replaces it Read More »

Industrial power buying in SEE is broken – and what replaces it

For more than two decades, industrial electricity procurement in South-East Europe followed a relatively simple logic. Secure a long-term supply contract, prioritise price level over structure, and treat electricity as a predictable operating cost rather than a strategic risk variable. Even when liberalisation progressed and exchanges emerged, most industrial buyers continued to anchor decisions around

SEE oil forward curve to 2030: Country overlays, execution risk, and pricingregimes in a constrained regional market Read More »

SEE oil forward curve to 2030: Country overlays, execution risk, and pricingregimes in a constrained regional market

By 2030, the southeast European oil forward curve can no longer be understood as a single regional construct. What may appear as a unified market anchored to Brent is, in reality, a layered system of country-specific execution curves, each responding differently to base, tight, and stress conditions. Flat prices remain a reference point, but they

SEE oil trading outlook 2026–2030: Flows, spreads, freight,and optionality in a constrained Europe Read More »

SEE oil trading outlook 2026–2030: Flows, spreads, freight,and optionality in a constrained Europe

Between 2026 and 2030, Southeast Europe’s oil market will be shaped less by broad price direction and more by structural constraints on flows, freight, and optionality. The region is evolving from a peripheral arbitrage zone into a structurally constrained end-market, with significant implications for spreads and risk management. Sanctions enforcement will continue to fragment liquidity.

Rising U.S. LNG dependence and how volatility travels into SEE gas markets Read More »

Rising U.S. LNG dependence and how volatility travels into SEE gas markets

The European Union’s growing dependence on U.S. LNG is often framed as a success story of diversification and energy security. For South-East Europe (SEE), however, this shift represents a more complex transformation — one that changes how volatility enters regional gas markets and how risk must be managed. U.S. LNG has become Europe’s dominant marginal

Trading Southeast Europe’s power markets: A practical playbook for signals, timing, and risk Read More »

Trading Southeast Europe’s power markets: A practical playbook for signals, timing, and risk

Electricity trading in Southeast Europe (SEE) is no longer about forecasting average prices. It is about understanding when prices break away from expectations, where congestion appears before it is visible in spot markets, and how volatility migrates across borders. Traders who still approach SEE with a baseload-import-versus-export mindset are systematically mispricing risk. Those who treat

Spreads, congestion, and flexibility: Why SEE has become Europe’s real power trading arena Read More »

Spreads, congestion, and flexibility: Why SEE has become Europe’s real power trading arena

Electricity trading in Southeast Europe (SEE) has entered a new phase. The region is no longer defined by static net import or export positions, nor by simple convergence toward EU benchmarks. Instead, SEE has become Europe’s most dynamic trading arena—a zone where spreads, congestion, and flexibility determine value far more than average price levels. The

Region: Serbia–North Macedonia gas pipeline project set for completion by 2027 Read More »

Region: Serbia–North Macedonia gas pipeline project set for completion by 2027

Plans for a new gas pipeline connecting Serbia and North Macedonia are moving forward with a defined timeline, as permitting is expected to conclude by mid-2026, followed immediately by construction. The update came after talks between Serbian Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Đedović and her North Macedonian counterpart Sanja Božinovska. Serbia’s energy strategy has

Regional power-flow shifts after the Pljevlja shutdown: Montenegro in a rewired Balkan energy landscape Read More »

Regional power-flow shifts after the Pljevlja shutdown: Montenegro in a rewired Balkan energy landscape

The shutdown of Pljevlja transforms Montenegro’s internal energy balance, but its implications extend beyond national borders. In the interconnected Balkan power system, every addition or removal of a major unit reshapes flows, congestion points, trade patterns and price correlations. Montenegro’s transition to a predominantly hydro-wind profile introduces a new dynamic into a region already balancing

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