europe

Gas as a flexible backbone — and a source of instability Read More »

Gas as a flexible backbone — and a source of instability

In Europe’s current energy architecture, natural gas occupies a paradoxical position. It is indispensable to system stability, yet it is also one of the system’s greatest sources of fragility. Gas is expected to provide flexibility, absorb renewable variability, and stabilise electricity markets during stress. At the same time, its supply is increasingly exposed to global […]

Why stability in one market no longer guarantees system stability Read More »

Why stability in one market no longer guarantees system stability

For much of Europe’s modern energy history, stability was assessed locally. If electricity prices were calm, the power system was considered healthy. If gas storage was full, supply security was assumed. If oil markets were well supplied, energy risk appeared contained. These indicators worked in a world where markets were loosely connected and shocks propagated

From sectors to systems Read More »

From sectors to systems

For decades, Europe’s energy debate was organised around sectors. Electricity policy was discussed in terms of generation mix and grid stability. Gas was treated as a supply-security problem, shaped by contracts, pipelines, and storage levels. Oil belonged to a different universe altogether, dominated by geopolitics, shipping routes, and global benchmarks. Each sector had its own

One energy market, three fuels Read More »

One energy market, three fuels

For most of the past three decades, Europe treated electricity, natural gas, and oil as adjacent but fundamentally separate markets. They were regulated differently, traded on different venues, analysed by different specialist desks, and governed by distinct political narratives. Power was about grids and marginal cost pricing, gas about long-term contracts and seasonal balance, oil

Europe: EU plans major CBAM reform to protect industry and accelerate decarbonization Read More »

Europe: EU plans major CBAM reform to protect industry and accelerate decarbonization

The European Union is preparing a comprehensive reform of its carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) aimed at preventing companies from relocating production to countries with weaker environmental standards, while at the same time protecting the competitiveness of European industry. The reform seeks to balance climate ambition with industrial resilience, ensuring that decarbonization does not come

Infrastructure is destiny: How grids, pipelines and bottlenecks create price signals Read More »

Infrastructure is destiny: How grids, pipelines and bottlenecks create price signals

Energy markets are often analysed as abstractions: prices, curves, spreads, marginal costs. Infrastructure appears in these models as a constraint, a background condition that occasionally matters during outages or extreme events. In Europe’s integrated energy system, this framing is no longer sufficient. Infrastructure is not a passive backdrop. It is an active force that shapes

South-East Europe as Europe’s stress test: What the region reveals about the energy transition Read More »

South-East Europe as Europe’s stress test: What the region reveals about the energy transition

South-East Europe does not sit on the periphery of Europe’s energy system. It sits at its edge in a different sense: the edge where constraints bind first, where volatility appears earliest, and where systemic assumptions are tested under real operating conditions rather than in models. The region is not an exception to Europe’s energy transition.

Trading energy in a system under stress: Portfolios, hedging, and survival in a multi-fuel market Read More »

Trading energy in a system under stress: Portfolios, hedging, and survival in a multi-fuel market

Energy trading was once about exploiting inefficiencies. Price differences across regions, fuels, or time horizons were treated as opportunities for arbitrage. Volatility was episodic, correlations were imperfect, and diversification across markets offered protection. In that world, successful trading meant predicting price direction more accurately than competitors and executing efficiently. In Europe’s current energy system, that

The invisible hand of oil: Logistics, refineries, and the hidden drivers of power and gas prices Read More »

The invisible hand of oil: Logistics, refineries, and the hidden drivers of power and gas prices

For much of the past two decades, oil was treated as a declining force in Europe’s electricity story. As power generation moved away from fuel oil and toward gas, nuclear, and renewables, oil was conceptually pushed to the margins of energy analysis. It remained central to transport and geopolitics, but increasingly absent from discussions about

Gas at the centre: How balancing, LNG, and spark spreads now define power prices Read More »

Gas at the centre: How balancing, LNG, and spark spreads now define power prices

For most of Europe’s electricity-market history, natural gas played a supporting role. It was a reliable, dispatchable fuel that complemented baseload generation and provided peak capacity when needed. Its pricing mattered, but it rarely dominated the narrative. Power markets were analysed primarily through generation mix, demand patterns, and network constraints. Gas was a fuel input,

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