Day-ahead electricity prices fell across most Southeast European markets on Tuesday, with the sharpest declines in Serbia, Greece and Hungary. Higher forecasts for renewable generation and increased regional output reduced import requirements even as consumption rose. Serbia, Greece and Hungary led the decline in the region’s day-ahead power markets.
Serbia’s SEEPEX baseload price dropped €43.4/MWh to €241.69/MWh, from €285.1/MWh a day earlier. Hungary’s HUPX fell €26.1 to €241.30/MWh, leaving the Serbia-Hungary baseload spread at just €0.39/MWh. Greece declined €33.7 to €224.85/MWh, the lowest major price in the region, while North Macedonia fell €25 to €259.84/MWh and remained the most expensive SEE market.
Romania and Bulgaria retained a price premium over Hungary. OPCOM settled at €255.49/MWh, €14.19 above HUPX, while IBEX in Bulgaria reached €254.58/MWh, a €13.28 premium. Monday’s extreme tightness in eastern Europe eased, but congestion and generation risks continued to distinguish Romania and Bulgaria from lower-priced markets farther west and south.
Renewable output rises as regional imports fall
Stronger renewable availability was the main downward pressure on prices. Regional solar generation forecasts increased by almost 2 GW day on day to 4.26 GW, while forecast wind output rose by slightly more than 1 GW to 3.51 GW. Together, the forecast gains added around 3 GW of lower-marginal-cost generation.
Aggregate consumption in Hungary and SEE rose by 626 MW to 32.94 GW, but net regional imports fell by 608 MW to 4.01 GW. Imports from the core Austrian and Slovak direction declined by 219 MW to about 4.38 GW. The regional balance also shifted against Italy, with the SEE system exporting around 155 MW towards Italy, compared with imports of roughly 400 MW a day earlier—a swing of more than 550 MW.
Regional generation reached around 28.9 GW, up from 27.7 GW on Monday. Additional domestic output absorbed most of the increase in consumption and allowed overall import dependence to decline. The day’s lower prices therefore coincided with stronger generation availability and renewable supply, rather than weaker demand.
Serbian prices fall as regional supply strengthens
Serbia’s average consumption increased to around 4.21 GW from 4.05 GW, while generation edged down to about 3.27 GW. Its net import position consequently widened to approximately 935 MW, from 722 MW a day earlier. Despite that larger deficit, SEEPEX fell by more than €43/MWh.
Commercial flows showed electricity entering Serbia from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Bulgaria, while Serbia also supplied power northwards to Hungary during part of the day. SEEPEX’s peak price averaged €253.1/MWh and its off-peak price was €230.2/MWh. The daily low was €165.1/MWh and the maximum reached €314.4/MWh.
The Serbia-Hungary baseload spread narrowed to €0.39/MWh, effectively bringing the two markets to parity. The price move reflected the weakening regional structure even as Serbia’s domestic net imports increased. In earlier periods, Serbia has carried a material scarcity premium over HUPX.
Montenegro is cheaper while Albania moves higher
Montenegro’s BELEN baseload price fell €8 to €230.55/MWh, around €10.75 below Hungary and more than €11 below Serbia. Consumption averaged about 356 MW and generation reached approximately 369 MW, leaving a small net export position of around 13 MW after the country had been a net importer the previous day. BELEN peak prices averaged €233/MWh, compared with €228.1/MWh off peak.
Albania moved against the broader regional decline. ALPEX rose €36.9 to €251.67/MWh, shifting from one of the cheaper markets on Monday into the upper part of the SEE price range. Its hourly profile was highly volatile: peak prices averaged €221.8/MWh, while off-peak prices reached €281.5/MWh, and prices ranged from €20/MWh to €400/MWh during the day.
North Macedonia remained the region’s highest-priced baseload market at €259.84/MWh after its €25 daily decline. Across the core SEE markets, prices ranged from €224.85/MWh in Greece to €259.84/MWh in North Macedonia, a difference of around €35/MWh.
Germany-Hungary spread narrows but remains wide
The largest structural price difference remained between Germany and Hungary. German day-ahead baseload rose €38.5 to €155.11/MWh, while HUPX fell to €241.30/MWh. The Hungary-Germany spread narrowed by almost €65/MWh to €86.18/MWh.
The reduced differential was still €86/MWh, indicating that cheaper western European electricity remained constrained in reaching Hungary and Southeast Europe. Austria traded at €247.66/MWh and Italy at €246.67/MWh, both slightly above Hungary. Germany remained substantially cheaper, while Austria and northern Italy were near SEE price levels and Romania, Bulgaria and North Macedonia carried the highest premiums.
Forward power prices and fuel markets strengthen
The day-ahead decline was not reflected in the forward curve. Hungarian week-45 power rose €6.5 to €301/MWh, week-46 power gained €5.5 to €271/MWh, and November increased €8 to €280.50/MWh. Calendar 2026 rose €4 to €182/MWh, leaving November power almost €40/MWh above Tuesday’s HUPX spot settlement.
Fuel and carbon markets also strengthened. Austrian CEGH gas rose €2.6 to €97.71/MWh, Greek gas increased to €86.08/MWh, and EU carbon allowances gained €1.9 to €88.19/t. November coal eased to €149.5/t.
Expensive gas, firmer carbon and unresolved generation risks continued to be reflected in forward electricity prices. Romania faced uncertainty over nuclear and hydropower availability, while low Danube levels in Bulgaria were affecting the operating environment around Kozloduy. These constraints remained relevant as the market approached November and solar production entered its seasonal decline.
Tuesday’s spot correction did not represent a broad easing of the regional winter outlook. Stronger renewable output and improved generation lowered immediate prices, while fuel costs, constrained cross-border capacity and generation-security concerns kept the forward curve elevated. The Hungary-Germany spread had narrowed sharply, but at more than €86/MWh it still showed that Southeast Europe remained structurally separated from cheaper German supply.
As long as that gap remains large, daily corrections such as Tuesday’s sit within a regional market that remains fundamentally tight, rather than marking the start of a sustained decline in SEE power prices.