Electricity prices for 9 October delivery rose across Southeast Europe, with Hungary reaching €269.43/MWh and Serbia recording the largest daily increase among the markets covered. The move was linked to lower wind output and nuclear outages that tightened regional supply and increased reliance on imports. Price differences between Southeast Europe and Central European markets widened despite higher cross-border flows.
Day-ahead spreads widen across the region
Hungary’s day-ahead premium over Germany expanded to €190.86/MWh, compared with about €74.9/MWh a day earlier. German electricity prices declined while most Southeast European markets recorded increases. The pattern reflected higher costs for securing electricity across the region alongside increased cross-border imports.
Serbia’s SEEPEX day-ahead average rose by €60.6/MWh to €239.96/MWh, an increase of approximately 34%. Hungary increased by €55.2/MWh, or nearly 26%, while Romania climbed by €45.8/MWh to €255.20/MWh. Bulgaria’s average rose by €33.1/MWh to €241.49/MWh.
Wind output drops as solar offsets part of the decline
The price rally was associated with tightening generation availability rather than a large rise in demand. Forecast electricity consumption across the covered markets increased by just 118 MW to 30,187 MW. Expected wind generation fell by 1,354 MW to 1,376 MW, nearly halving versus the previous day.
Solar generation was forecast to increase by 319 MW to 5,339 MW. That gain offset less than a quarter of the wind decline, leaving combined wind and solar generation down by approximately 1,035 MW. The reduction increased reliance on alternative sources of electricity.
Nuclear outages and higher net imports tighten supply balance
Regional net imports rose by 1,523 MW to 4,247 MW, representing about 14% of forecast consumption compared with 9% a day earlier. Imports through monitored Austria–Slovakia routes into Hungary and Slovenia increased by 1,307 MW to 3,555 MW. Hungary’s premium over Germany widened despite the additional imported electricity.
Nuclear outages contributed to pressure on the regional supply balance. Romania’s Cernavoda plant was reported to have both reactors unavailable, with the outage expected to continue until at least 15 October and any restart dependent on conditions on the Danube. In Bulgaria, Kozloduy unit 6 entered annual maintenance scheduled to run until the end of November.
Bulgaria’s remaining reactor, unit 5, was operating at approximately 917 MW gross, with available output also affected by low river levels. Across the regional generation markets covered, nuclear production had already declined by 645 MW to 3,216 MW on 8 October.
Other market moves and forward price changes in Hungary
A range of price increases was recorded across other Southeast European markets. Montenegro’s BELEN average rose by €14.6/MWh to €223.39/MWh, while Croatia increased by €22.1/MWh to €222.92/MWh. Slovenia advanced by €14.6/MWh to €211.73/MWh.
The day-ahead average in Greece climbed by €42.7/MWh to €207.93/MWh, while North Macedonia recorded a rise of €42.4/MWh to €210.14/MWh. Albania moved in the opposite direction, with prices falling by €111/MWh to €110.53/MWh, about half the previous day’s level. The resulting discount to Hungary widened to nearly €159/MWh.
Methane gas and carbon prices support wholesale costs; forward contracts rise in Hungary
The forward curve strengthened in Hungary alongside spot increases. Week-42 contracts rose by