Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates that the country’s exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will reach approximately €140.2 million in 2026. Serbian exporters are facing greater demands to document emissions while meeting price and delivery terms. The figure is a projection, not a tax bill or recorded revenue, but CBAM could affect supplier costs and access to EU customers.
CBAM covers specified categories of goods imported into the EU. In 2025, imports under the relevant carbon-border customs codes were valued at €111.23 billion, based on the goods’ border value rather than the value of certificates due. The total includes imports from exempt source countries; excluding those origins leaves about €94.74 billion of trade potentially relevant before product, importer and emissions tests.
Iron and steel made up €60.95 billion of the EU’s 2025 imports covered by the codes, while aluminium accounted for €30.34 billion. Serbia is not a leading origin across the full import total, but its trade is concentrated in corridors linking Serbian producers and traders with several EU border and manufacturing markets. Its immediate exposure is narrower, covering metals, electricity and other goods shipped from Serbia.
The Finance Ministry estimates that more than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the EU are within CBAM’s scope. Around 1,000 companies exported to the EU in 2025 and could be directly affected, while more than 3,500 Serbian businesses have direct or indirect links to covered sectors. Those industries account for around 4.5% of employment, extending the compliance issue beyond a small number of large producers.
Projected exposure and commercial costs
Under the ministry’s baseline scenario, exposure is projected at €161.4 million in 2029. The 2026 estimate includes €89.1 million for steel and iron, €19.5 million for aluminium and €21.8 million for electricity. The calculations use a fixed 2025 trade structure, default emissions assumptions and a reference certificate price of €75.36; they are not invoices issued to Serbian companies.
EU importers and authorised CBAM declarants have the formal reporting and certificate obligations, but related commercial costs may be passed back to Serbian mills through discounts or contract clauses. Costs could also be transferred to downstream processors, construction suppliers and manufacturers. Negotiations will partly depend on whether plants can document emissions below regulatory defaults, how much free-allocation relief remains and whether importers can source lower-carbon goods elsewhere.
EU buyers must file their first annual declaration for imports made in 2026 and surrender the associated certificates by September 30, 2027. Serbian suppliers need to provide product classifications, production data for each installation and emissions evidence early enough for buyers to price and contract shipments and complete verification work.
Plants that fail to provide the required information risk losing business even if their actual carbon performance is competitive. Lower-carbon production has commercial value only if its emissions can be demonstrated, attributed to the correct shipment and accepted in the importer’s declaration. For Serbian exporters, the immediate test is whether individual steel, metalworking and power businesses can retain EU customers.
Elevated by CBAM by Clarion Engineer