Serbia’s goods exports rose 8.9% to 26.89 billion euros in January-September 2026, putting the durability of the gains in focus for electricity-intensive manufacturers. They need to manage power costs and supply reliability while providing emissions and input-origin evidence to European Union customers covered by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Serbian manufacturing output increased 5.1% in September from a year earlier, according to the Statistical Office, while output in electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply fell. Total industrial production rose 3.2% in September but increased only 0.5% over January-September; the supply-sector decline was 7.2% year on year in September.
The industrial production figures measure changes in output, not electricity-market prices. They do not establish that power shortages caused the performance of any particular factory. The export and production data therefore do not, by themselves, show whether industrial users faced affordable prices or dependable electricity supply.
Steel mills, aluminium processors, cement plants and large component manufacturers require reliable electricity as well as commercially acceptable prices. Short interruptions, voltage issues, variable balancing costs and uncertainty about future supply contracts can affect production schedules and delivery of export orders even when average electricity prices appear manageable.
Power security and CBAM documentation
At MEPS 2026, representatives of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce warned that European trade restrictions and unresolved energy-security questions could complicate Serbia’s external economic position. The role of imported fossil fuels was among the risks raised at the conference.
For manufacturers planning investment over a decade or more, stability of electricity and fuel supply matters alongside the latest monthly export figures. Serbia’s stronger sales are an encouraging starting point, but they do not establish that industrial competitiveness is secure as companies plan long-lived production capacity.
The EU’s CBAM definitive regime began on January 1, 2026. Electricity is one of the six sectors it covers, alongside selected goods including iron and steel, aluminium and cement. The relevant legal obligations fall on the EU importer or authorised declarant, but suppliers outside the bloc may be asked for emissions information, evidence of generation and contractual records when an importer seeks to use actual rather than default values under applicable rules.
A renewable electricity purchase agreement does not automatically show that an industrial export or electricity shipment qualifies for a particular CBAM emissions treatment. That treatment depends on the applicable legal methodology, physical and contractual links, monitoring data and verification requirements. Emissions evidence must correspond to the product and reporting period being claimed, and unsupported statements about green power can create compliance risks for buyers.
For electricity-intensive exporters, the commercial exposure has three distinct parts: the factory-gate energy price; the risk of interruptions, imbalance charges and fuel or network constraints; and the supplier’s ability to document input emissions and origin to standards acceptable to EU customers. These affect margins in different ways and should not be collapsed into one carbon-cost estimate.
Contracts, data and financing
Banks financing industrial expansion should include energy-supply, price and carbon-data risks in their credit appraisals. A technically efficient production line may still be commercially weak if its energy contract exposes the company to uncontrolled prices or an EU customer cannot obtain required emissions data.
Secure supply agreements, metering systems, clear data ownership and independently checked emissions documentation can strengthen bankability and customer confidence. Industrial buyers can compare fixed-price supply, indexed procurement and bilateral power-purchase arrangements against a transparent risk budget.
A long-term power contract may reduce one kind of price exposure while introducing credit, volume or shape risk. The appropriate procurement model depends on consumption patterns, reliability of delivered supply and counterparties’ financial strength, rather than a general preference for one contract type.
Companies expanding low-carbon production can design evidence systems alongside the plant, with clear ownership and auditable controls for metering points, production records, precursor inputs and emissions calculations. Building those systems during plant development reduces the risk of having to reconstruct years of operational data when a foreign customer or verifier requests it.
Metering and production evidence can also help companies determine whether process improvements are reducing energy intensity. Suppliers serving both domestic and EU markets need to allocate documentation, verification and contractual expenses without assuming that every tonne or megawatt-hour faces the same carbon charge. Domestic buyers may focus mainly on product price and reliable delivery, while an EU importer of covered goods must also assess relevant CBAM obligations.
A practical competitiveness programme would combine grid and generation investment with energy-efficiency upgrades, improved industrial metering, credible contracting and export-oriented environmental reporting. Power-market reform alone would not resolve all trade challenges, and compliance work would not replace physical supply infrastructure. The next test for Serbian manufacturers is whether they can turn improved sales into durable capacity while controlling energy costs and meeting the documentation standards of their largest external market.