Day-ahead power prices rose sharply across most of Southeast Europe on Monday, October 26, as weekday demand returned after the weekend. Serbia recorded the region’s highest price, at €285.08/MWh.
Serbia’s SEEPEX price rose €21.4/MWh from Sunday, narrowly ahead of North Macedonia at €284.87/MWh. Romania climbed by almost €40 to €271.92/MWh, while Hungary reached €267.40/MWh, Bulgaria €263.39/MWh and Greece €258.52/MWh. Croatia, Austria, Italy, Slovenia and Montenegro formed a lower-priced group, with prices around €238-243/MWh.
Gains were broad across the region: Croatia rose €39.2/MWh day on day, Romania €39.9/MWh, Slovenia €39.1/MWh, Bulgaria €33.8/MWh and Greece €31.1/MWh. Hungary’s increase was smaller, at €8.1/MWh, while Montenegro added €19/MWh to reach €238.55/MWh.
The return of working-day demand was the main change in market fundamentals. Aggregate consumption in Hungary and the monitored Southeast European markets increased to 31,816 MW, up 3,174 MW, or about 11%, from Sunday. Regional net imports fell by 336 MW to 4,648 MW, while imports from Austria and Slovakia eased slightly to 4,632 MW.
Regional generation rose from 23,657 MW on Sunday to 27,168 MW on Monday, an increase of about 3.5 GW that more than matched the growth in consumption. The price rise therefore did not result simply from a deterioration in the aggregate supply-demand balance. The data instead point to the return of weekday peak-load pricing, alongside continuing cross-border constraints and expensive marginal generation in the eastern part of the interconnected market.
Serbia and North Macedonia post the region’s highest prices
Serbia’s SEEPEX baseload price of €285.08/MWh was about €18/MWh above Hungary, €22/MWh above Bulgaria, €27/MWh above Greece and €44/MWh above Italy’s national price. Prices remained high across Serbia’s hourly profile: the minimum was €220/MWh, and the maximum reached €375.1/MWh in hour 18.
Peak-load power averaged €283.7/MWh, while off-peak electricity averaged €286.5/MWh, indicating that the premium extended beyond a few evening hours. North Macedonia’s baseload price was almost identical, at €284.87/MWh, forming a high-price Serbia-North Macedonia area above the larger Hungarian, Romanian and Bulgarian markets.
The Serbian premium is increasingly significant for traders. Where transmission capacity is available, the price difference with Hungary and the western Balkans can create cross-border trading opportunities; it also increases physical supply costs for Serbian utilities, suppliers and industrial consumers exposed to day-ahead procurement.
German price recovery leaves a wide east-west spread
Germany saw one of the day’s largest price changes: its day-ahead power price rose from €13.7/MWh on Sunday to €116.57/MWh on Monday, a gain of almost €103/MWh. Even after that recovery, Hungary was €150.83/MWh more expensive than Germany.
The Hungary-Germany spread narrowed sharply from around €245.6/MWh a day earlier, largely because German prices recovered rather than because prices in Central and Southeast Europe declined. The gap remains a clear sign of regional market fragmentation.
Hungary continued to serve as a major transit market between lower-cost Central European supply and tighter eastern markets. Commercial schedules showed substantial volumes arriving from Austria and Slovakia while power was also sent east towards Romania. Hungary-to-Romania baseload flows reached about 1,684 MW, including around 1,920 MW during peak hours.
The flow pattern shows why lower German generation costs do not automatically produce similarly low prices in Southeast Europe: cross-border capacity and the configuration of regional flows affect how much western supply can reach deficit markets.
Bulgaria shifts from net exporter to net importer
Bulgaria’s consumption rose to 4,219 MW, while generation was 3,931 MW. The country consequently became a net importer of about 288 MW, having been a net exporter of 217 MW on Sunday.
IBEX rose to €263.39/MWh, reinforcing the higher-price pattern extending from Romania and Bulgaria through Serbia and North Macedonia. Bulgaria often serves as an important generation and transit hub for the southern Balkans, so the shift from export availability to import demand removes supply that could otherwise help cap prices elsewhere in the region.
Albania moves against the regional price increase
Albania was the main exception to the broader market rise. ALPEX fell by €105.1/MWh from Sunday to €214.76/MWh, leaving the country more than €70/MWh below Serbia.
The divergence was present across Albania’s hourly curve: peak electricity averaged €213.4/MWh and off-peak power €216.1/MWh, with prices ranging from €131/MWh to €325/MWh. The sharp decline against an otherwise rising regional market highlights the sensitivity of individual Balkan bidding zones to local balances, cross-border schedules and available transmission capacity.
Forward prices and fuel costs also rise
The forward curve strengthened, with Hungarian week 44 power up €14/MWh to €279.50/MWh and week 45 up €23/MWh to €294.50/MWh. November power gained €17/MWh to €272.50/MWh.
The supporting fuel complex remained expensive: CEGH gas stood at €95.11/MWh, November gas at €95.50/MWh and EU carbon allowances at €86.26/t. Coal forwards also moved higher.
The forward-market moves indicate that the market was not treating Monday’s increase solely as a one-day rebound driven by the return of demand after the weekend. For Southeast European market participants, a key feature was the persistence of a high-price eastern European zone despite stronger regional generation and lower aggregate net imports.
Serbia at €285/MWh, North Macedonia near the same level and Hungary still €151/MWh above Germany showed that cross-border constraints and regional marginal pricing remained more influential than the headline European supply picture. Until the spreads narrow materially, access to transmission capacity, generation availability and hourly positioning between Central Europe and the Balkans are likely to remain the dominant drivers of short-term Southeast European trading economics.