Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates the country’s economic exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at approximately 140.2 million euros in 2026, as exporters face growing demands to document emissions alongside meeting price and delivery terms. The projection is not a tax bill or recorded revenue, but CBAM-related costs could affect suppliers’ contracts and access to EU customers.
CBAM covers specified categories of goods imported into the EU. In 2025, goods matching the relevant carbon-border customs codes accounted for 111.23 billion euros of extra-EU imports, measured by the border value of the goods, not the value of certificates owed. The total includes imports from exempt source countries; after those origins are removed, about 94.74 billion euros remains potentially relevant before product-level, importer-level and emissions tests.
Iron and steel made up 60.95 billion euros of EU imports covered by the codes in 2025, while aluminium accounted for 30.34 billion euros. Serbia is not a leading origin in the aggregate, but its trade is concentrated in corridors connecting its producers and traders with several EU border and manufacturing markets. Its immediate exposure is narrower, covering metals, electricity and other specified products shipped from Serbian producers and traders.
The Finance Ministry calculates that more than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the EU fall within CBAM’s scope. Around 1,000 companies exported to the EU in 2025 and could be directly affected, while more than 3,500 Serbian businesses are linked directly or indirectly to covered sectors. Those industries account for around 4.5% of employment in Serbia, making compliance relevant beyond a small number of large producers.
Under the ministry’s baseline scenario, exposure rises to 161.4 million euros in 2029. The 2026 estimate comprises 89.1 million euros for steel and iron, 19.5 million euros for aluminium and 21.8 million euros for electricity. The calculations assume a fixed 2025 trade structure, default emissions assumptions and a reference certificate price of €75.36; they are projections, not invoices sent to Serbian companies.
Emissions evidence will shape commercial terms
EU importers and authorised CBAM declarants have the formal reporting and certificate obligations. Related commercial costs can nevertheless be passed back to Serbian mills through discounts and contract clauses, or forward to processors, construction suppliers and manufacturers. Negotiations will depend on whether Serbian plants can document emissions below regulatory defaults, how much free-allocation relief remains and whether importers can source lower-carbon goods elsewhere.
EU buyers must submit their first annual declaration for imports made in 2026 and surrender the associated certificates by 30 September 2027. Serbian suppliers need to provide product classifications, installation-level production data and emissions evidence early enough for buyers to price and contract shipments and complete verification work.
Plants that cannot provide the required information risk losing business even if their actual carbon performance might be competitive. A lower-carbon production route is commercially useful only if emissions can be demonstrated, attributed to the correct shipment and accepted through the EU importer’s declaration process. For Serbian exporters, the immediate commercial question is whether individual steel, metalworking and power businesses can retain their EU customers.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer