Southeast European day-ahead power prices remained near €300/MWh on November 4, while differences between markets widened. Imports increased, and Serbia’s price moved lower as regional markets diverged.
Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria formed the closest price group. The HUPX day-ahead settlement was €302.31/MWh, compared with €300.84/MWh in Romania and €301.69/MWh in Bulgaria; all three rose from the previous session. Montenegro and North Macedonia were also near that level, at €299.13/MWh and €299.90/MWh, respectively.
Prices differed more sharply elsewhere. Albania reached a regional high of €333.03/MWh after rising €19.4/MWh, while Serbia’s SEEPEX price fell €12.7/MWh to €292.45/MWh. Greece remained among the least expensive SEE markets at €279.70/MWh, despite a daily increase of €12.4/MWh.
Germany’s price was substantially lower at €248.99/MWh, putting Hungary at a €53.33/MWh premium to the German market. Italy also traded below most SEE markets, at €282.19/MWh.
Imports increased as regional generation declined
Physical balances continued to support prices, although forecast consumption eased by 712 MW to 34,910 MW. Net imports rose by 483 MW to 4,244 MW. Imports from the Austria-Slovakia direction reached 3,142 MW, while flows from Italy into the region increased to 1,104 MW.
Regional generation fell from 31,861 MW on November 3 to around 30,665 MW on November 4. The renewable mix shifted in opposite directions: solar production was forecast to increase by 1,304 MW, while wind generation was expected to decline by 1,464 MW. The drop in wind output more than offset the projected solar gain.
Serbia and Albania move in opposite directions
Serbia was among the clearest examples of regional price decoupling. SEEPEX base power fell to €292.45/MWh, almost €10/MWh below Hungary. The adjustment was concentrated in peak hours: Serbian peak prices dropped to €316.5/MWh from €341.4/MWh, while off-peak prices were nearly unchanged at €268.4/MWh.
The Serbian movement was driven primarily by easing tightness during peak periods, rather than by a broad decline across the daily price curve. Albania moved sharply in the opposite direction, with ALPEX rising to €333.03/MWh, more than €40/MWh above Serbia. Its maximum hourly price reached €600/MWh at H21.
The wider price gap between Serbia and Albania shows that transmission constraints and local generation conditions can produce substantial differences between nearby SEE markets.
Forward prices and fuel benchmarks ease
Hungarian forward power prices gave a softer signal than the spot market. Week 46 edged higher to €314/MWh, while Week 47 fell to €294/MWh and December declined to €262/MWh. The HU-DE Week 47 spread narrowed by €18.5/MWh to €71/MWh.
Gas, carbon and coal benchmarks also moved lower, offering less evidence that the latest spot-market strength reflected a fresh fuel-cost shock. The trading signal was increasingly one of regional price dispersion rather than the headline SEE price. Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria remained clustered around €301-302/MWh, while Serbia moved into a lower-priced Central Balkan pocket; Greece and Italy remained cheaper, and Albania was the region’s clearest scarcity market.
SEE net imports remained above 4.2 GW, while Hungary continued to trade more than €50/MWh above Germany. Cross-border capacity, wind availability and national generation balances remained the main factors to watch in the next trading sessions.