Poland was the largest direct EU market for Serbian iron and steel in 2025, importing €125.3 million worth of products, while Germany led direct imports of Serbian aluminium. The differing rankings show that EU-wide trade data for goods covered by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) does not identify the main buyers of Serbia’s exports in covered sectors. Serbia’s EU exports in the HS72 iron and steel category were valued at $640.7 million, or about €567 million at the 2025 average exchange rate.
Direct EU markets for Serbian steel
Czechia was the second-largest direct EU market for Serbian HS72 goods, with imports of €77.8 million, followed by Hungary at €71.9 million. Italy imported €53.4 million and Slovenia €10.0 million, while direct imports by Germany stood at just €4.9 million. Bulgaria and Romania were also significant direct markets, although no import values were specified.
EU-wide rankings for imports of CBAM-coded goods from all extra-EU origins differed: Italy accounted for 17.6% of their value in 2025, while Germany and the Netherlands each represented about 12.7%. These figures cover steel, aluminium, fertilisers, power and other goods, and do not show purchases specifically from Serbia.
Aluminium trade and CBAM coverage
EU imports from Serbia in HS76, covering aluminium and articles, totalled $505.7 million in 2025, equivalent to approximately €448 million. Germany was the largest direct reporting market at €75.0 million, followed by Slovenia at €72.2 million and France at €64.0 million. Poland imported €25.4 million of Serbian aluminium, Hungary €14.3 million and Italy €12.1 million; Czechia’s imports were €6.0 million.
Croatia and Romania also ranked among the markets following the three leaders, but no values were specified for them. The euro figures are indicative conversions of US-dollar trade values using the 2025 average rate of €1 = $1.1300. HS72 and HS76 are chapter-level categories that include products such as ferrous and aluminium scrap outside CBAM Annex I coverage, so they indicate trade orientation and a possible compliance pipeline rather than the exact value of Serbia’s CBAM-liable sales. Determining whether an individual delivery is covered requires an eight-digit Combined Nomenclature match.
Import routes, customers and emissions data
Customs clearance does not establish where a product is ultimately consumed. The importer of record may be a merchant, service centre or regional distributor rather than the industrial customer. For example, a Serbian steel coil imported into Poland could be rolled, coated or shaped before being used in machinery sold in Germany; aluminium reported at Slovenia’s border could also move onward as a semi-finished product or undergo processing in several countries.
The direct-import pattern points to manufacturing and distribution clusters in central Europe, rather than showing that the largest EU customs markets buy every Serbian product. Steel suppliers should engage with buyers and processors in Poland, Czechia and Hungary, while aluminium exporters should prioritise contract chains in Germany, Slovenia and France. Exporters need to identify both the party legally responsible for CBAM as declarant and the industrial customer that controls technical specifications.
The party paying customs-related costs may not determine a material’s long-term competitiveness. If importers use conservative default emissions values while waiting for verified plant data, purchase prices could carry a carbon premium greater than the producer’s actual emissions warrant. Exporters seeking to defend market share need documented production and emissions information that travels with the goods.
Elevated by CBAM by Clarion Engineer