Bulgaria’s state-owned gas supplier Bulgargaz has proposed a reduction in the wholesale price of natural gas to be applied in January 2026, reflecting continued easing in market conditions. According to the proposal, the price for January is expected to be around €31.2 per megawatt-hour (MWh), marking a 3.3% decrease compared with the price approved for […]
2030–2035 scenario annex: Gas prices, CBAM and export margins Read More »
Scenario one: High volatility, tight LNG markets In a scenario characterised by global LNG tightness, regulatory uncertainty, and persistent geopolitical risk, European gas prices remain volatile with frequent spikes. Average prices may moderate, but extreme events become more common. Under this scenario, Serbian exporters without flexibility face chronic margin pressure. Steel and ceramics suffer the
Gas–power flexibility models for Serbian industries Read More »
Flexibility as a cost-control mechanism Flexibility has become the primary tool for managing gas-driven volatility. In the Serbian context, flexibility does not mean eliminating gas use but managing when and how gas and electricity are consumed. At the system level, flexibility reduces exposure to marginal pricing. At the plant level, it allows producers to avoid
Gas vs electricity procurement: Strategic choices fo Serbian exporters Read More »
Serbian exporters increasingly face a strategic choice: treat gas and electricity as separate procurement streams or integrate them into a unified energy risk strategy. The latter approach is rapidly becoming essential. Gas procurement indexed fully to TTF offers flexibility but exposes companies to extreme volatility. Electricity procurement based on short-term wholesale markets compounds this risk
Sector-by-sector gas cost sensitivity in Serbian export industries Read More »
Steel: Gas as a volatility multiplier rather than a fuel cost In Serbia’s steel industry, gas sensitivity manifests less through average cost levels and more through volatility transmission. Gas is used directly for heating and indirectly via electricity consumption in rolling, casting, and finishing processes. While gas may represent a minority share of total energy
Gas markets as a structural cost driver for Serbian exporters Read More »
Natural gas has shifted from a relatively predictable industrial input to a structurally volatile cost driver across European markets. For Serbian exporters supplying the EU, gas price dynamics now shape not only operating costs, but also contract structures, risk allocation, and long-term competitiveness. Unlike the pre-2020 period, when long-term pipeline contracts smoothed price volatility, today’s
Electricity pricing has shifted from a background cost to a central competitive variable for Serbian export-oriented production. For companies selling into the European Union, power prices now influence operating margins, contract structure, carbon exposure, and long-term bankability. This is no longer theoretical; it is already embedded in buyer behavior, procurement models, and compliance frameworks. To
What the European gas market means for Serbia-based producers and exporters Read More »
The European natural gas market has moved decisively away from its pre-2020 equilibrium. Price formation, supply security, and cost competitiveness are no longer primarily dictated by long-term contracts and pipeline marginal costs. Instead, they are shaped by a volatile interplay of LNG pricing, financial hedging, regulatory overlays, and gas-power coupling. For Serbia-based companies producing gas,
By 2030, Serbian exporters will no longer focus on whether global oil prices are “high” or “low,” but on whether delivered cost structures remain competitive once energy, carbon, logistics, and compliance are fully incorporated into EU-bound exports. Serbia does not compete as an upstream crude producer; it competes as a downstream processor, producing petroleum products,
Electricity market coupling is often discussed in technical or commercial terms, but its most profound effects are political. By linking Montenegro’s market directly to Italy’s, coupling effectively removes the border as a buffer between domestic energy policy and European price formation. This fundamentally constrains the scope for unilateral intervention in the power sector. Before coupling,
