European natural gas prices declined in Week 48, as forecasts indicated warmer-than-expected temperatures, reducing anticipated heating demand. TTF month-ahead prices settled below €30/MWh for the first time since May 2024, marking an 18-month low despite a recent cold spell.
TTF futures for January 2026 delivery traded near €29/MWh throughout the week. Prices started at €29.904/MWh on Monday, November 24, down -4.8% from the previous week, and closed the week at €28.817/MWh on Friday, November 28, a drop of -4.6% from the previous Friday. The weekly average was €29.3908/MWh, -5.4% lower than Week 47.
EU gas storage facilities were operating at 75% capacity, below the 90% target for December 1, yet market sentiment remained relatively calm. This softening reflects a significant easing from the peak energy crisis period, though prices remain above pre-2021 levels.
Key factors driving the decline:
- Strong LNG inflows and steady Norwegian pipeline deliveries boosted supply, offsetting reduced Russian gas. Global LNG supply grew 20% year-on-year in the first 20 days of November, with the US contributing nearly half of this increase.
- Milder weather forecasts across Europe reduced expected heating demand.
- Geopolitical developments: Ongoing diplomatic efforts toward a potential resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have eased the risk premium in gas prices. The White House proposed a 19-point plan, including security guarantees under NATO Article 5, a non-aggression agreement between Russia and Ukraine, Kyiv’s refusal to join NATO, and a reduction of Ukrainian armed forces.
This combination of stronger supply, lower demand expectations, and reduced geopolitical risk has pushed European gas prices to their lowest levels in over a year and a half.