Germany and Slovenia were the largest directly recorded EU markets for Serbian aluminium in 2025, buying about €75 million and €72 million respectively, as the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) makes verified product-level emissions data increasingly important alongside physical specifications. The trade increasingly requires an emissions account in addition to details such as alloy, gauge and surface quality. EU imports of Serbian aluminium and aluminium articles under HS76 were valued at $505.7 million, approximately €448 million.
France bought €64 million of Serbian aluminium and aluminium articles in 2025, followed by Croatia at €36 million and Romania at €35 million. These country figures record customs-entry markets, not necessarily the factories that ultimately incorporated the metal into construction systems, machinery or transport equipment. Processors in Germany and Slovenia can aggregate metal purchases and produce components for customers in several EU markets.
The product mix shows trade in processed metal as well as primary material. EU imports included about €149 million under HS7606 for plate, sheet and strip, €79 million under HS7612 for containers, about €62 million under HS7616 for other articles and around €41 million under HS7604 for profiles. Serbian aluminium scrap under HS7602 was also traded, but scrap is not covered by the initial CBAM annex and should be excluded from a precise CBAM trade total.
Emissions data and export requirements
Impol Seval, a major Serbian rolled-aluminium producer, reported about €89.7 million in export receipts in the first six months of 2025. The company named Germany, Italy and France among its key markets. Its disclosures indicate industrial export demand and domestic rolling capacity, but do not establish that particular shipments went to vehicles, aircraft or branded consumer packaging. Determining specific end customers or uses would require additional contract or supply-chain evidence.
For an EU purchaser, the cost passed on for aluminium depends on direct embedded emissions under current CBAM coverage, the production route, precursor inputs and verification. Electricity procurement remains important to overall plant competitiveness and buyers’ broader sustainability requirements, but indirect electricity emissions should not simply be added to the initial CBAM certificate calculation for aluminium. Suppliers need to distinguish legal emissions reporting from voluntary low-carbon commercial claims.
A Serbian exporter may negotiate with a distributor carrying inventory risk and certificate exposure, while a separate manufacturing customer specifies the alloy and carbon data. Identifying which party sets commercial terms can matter as much as identifying the customs destination. Suppliers that allocate emissions to specific product batches, disclose consistently across trading entities and demonstrate reliable physical quality and documentary compliance are better placed to defend access to European manufacturing chains.
Ministry estimates 2026 exposure at €19.5 million
Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimated aluminium CBAM exposure at €19.5 million in 2026 and projected it to remain near that level through much of the projection period. The estimate assumes 2025 exports remain fixed and uses default emissions values.
Actual obligations could differ considerably as transaction patterns, verified factory emissions and EU certificate prices change. The ministry models possible relief if EU authorities recognise carbon prices paid in Serbia, but that recognition must not be assumed automatically. The ability of Serbian rolled-metal producers to meet both physical-quality and documentary-compliance requirements can help them maintain access to European manufacturing chains.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer