Southeast European day-ahead electricity market prices surged on 28 October, with Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Albania and Serbia trading around or above €300/MWh. Lower renewable availability and reduced imports tightened supply, while regional demand was largely unchanged.
Romania posted the region’s highest baseload price at €311.38/MWh, up €55.90 from the previous session. Bulgaria reached €305.56/MWh, Hungary €303.34/MWh and Albania €302.05/MWh, while Serbia’s SEEPEX price rose €51.00 to €292.65/MWh.
Forecast electricity consumption across Hungary and Southeast Europe stood at 33,331 MW, just 44 MW higher day on day. Forecast solar availability fell by 862 MW and wind availability by 1,355 MW, removing more than 2.2 GW of renewable supply from the regional balance.
Meanwhile, the region’s total net imports declined to 3,941 MW. The core inflow from Austria and Slovakia dropped by 725 MW to 3,625 MW, leaving less low-cost generation and external supply available despite little change in consumption.
Lower renewable output tightens the regional balance
Hungary was among the markets with the sharpest day-ahead increases: HUPX rose €62.00 to €303.34/MWh. Germany’s price climbed €94.10 to €249.21/MWh, narrowing Hungary’s premium over Germany to €54.13/MWh from more than €86/MWh a day earlier.
Price gains also extended to forward delivery periods in Hungary. Week 45 power was assessed at €307/MWh, Week 46 at €297/MWh and November at €282.50/MWh. Week 46 gained €26/MWh in a day.
Fuel markets showed little evidence of a sudden increase in generation costs. Austrian CEGH gas eased slightly to €97.24/MWh, European Union Allowances (EUAs) were broadly stable at €88.05/t, and November coal fell. On Wednesday, the region had less inexpensive electricity available to meet demand, although consumption had barely changed.
Across Hungary and Southeast Europe, average generation was about 29.4 GW against consumption above 33.3 GW, while the region was still importing almost 4 GW on average. The 28 October trading session showed that materially higher demand was not necessary for prices to rise: renewable output and import capability both fell.
Serbia’s SEEPEX price approaches €300/MWh
In Serbia, SEEPEX baseload settled at €292.65/MWh, a €51/MWh increase in one session. Peak power was €313/MWh, and the hourly maximum reached €400/MWh. The minimum price remained €189/MWh, showing that elevated prices extended across the daily curve rather than reflecting only one or two extreme hours.
Serbia’s price was around €10.69/MWh below Hungary’s, a relatively small discount as the market moved in line with tighter conditions in Central and Eastern Europe. Serbia was a substantial net importer, with average net imports of roughly 1,192 MW, compared with about 915 MW the previous day.
Regional flow data showed imports arriving from several neighbouring systems, while northbound flows from Serbia towards Hungary remained limited. The market’s ability to avoid HUPX-level prices increasingly depended on available cross-border capacity and supply from neighbouring countries; when both buffers tighten, SEEPEX can move towards the Hungarian and Romanian price complex quickly.
Montenegro’s role in regional electricity flows
Montenegro remained among the region’s less expensive markets despite a notable increase. BELEN rose €35.90 to €266.41/MWh, nearly €37/MWh below Hungary and about €26/MWh below Serbia. Its peak price reached €277.10/MWh, while the daily maximum touched €400/MWh.
The country was almost physically balanced overall, although gross flows were much larger than its net position suggests. Montenegro was drawing electricity from the western side of the system, including Italy, while also sending substantial volumes towards Serbia and other Western Balkan markets.
These flows make Montenegro a cross-border transit and arbitrage corridor connecting Italy, the Adriatic and the tighter Western Balkan price zone. TPP Pljevlja is scheduled to enter a planned maintenance outage from 31 October, reducing the country’s domestic thermal buffer while regional prices are already elevated.
Greece remains a lower-priced exporting market
Greece was the main exception to the regional price increase. HENEX rose by just €7.70 to €232.57/MWh, leaving the Greek price roughly €71/MWh below Hungary, €79/MWh below Romania and €60/MWh below Serbia.
Greece exported around 2,010 MW on average, up from 1,400 MW the previous day, with particularly strong flows towards Bulgaria. Generation was well above domestic consumption, enabling Greek electricity to flow north into the tighter Bulgarian and wider Balkan systems.
The resulting price pattern placed Greece in the lower-priced exporting zone, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro in the middle, and Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Albania near or above €300/MWh. The session also showed how falling wind and solar generation, combined with several hundred megawatts less import capability from Central Europe, can push much of Southeast Europe towards €300-€400/MWh.
For traders and large industrial consumers, the key variables are renewable forecasts, Austria-Slovakia (AT-SK) import flows, Serbia’s import dependence, Greek export availability and Montenegro’s thermal availability after the Pljevlja outage begins.