German day-ahead power fell by €52.68/MWh to €139.35/MWh, while Hungary’s HUPX benchmark rose by €3.47/MWh to €214.28/MWh for Oct. 8 delivery. The resulting €74.93/MWh Hungary-Germany spread coincided with recovered wind and solar output across Southeast Europe. Austria traded below Hungary at €188.88/MWh, and scheduled imports into the monitored Hungary-SEE region from Austria and Slovakia fell by about 542 MW to 1.53 GW.
Southeast Europe day-ahead prices mixed across key hubs
Price changes across Southeast Europe were mixed after the German-Hungarian divergence. Serbia’s SEEPEX benchmark dropped by €18.58/MWh to €179.39/MWh, widening its discount to Hungary to €34.89/MWh, while Serbia’s scheduled net imports increased to around 988 MW. Montenegro rose by €11.39/MWh to €208.80/MWh, Bulgaria gained €9.80/MWh to €208.40/MWh, and Albania climbed by €9.40/MWh to €221.53/MWh, the highest monitored SEE daily average.
Romania was little changed at €209.38/MWh, while Croatia fell to €200.81/MWh and Slovenia to €197.10/MWh. Greece remained cheaper at €165.25/MWh, and North Macedonia averaged €167.78/MWh. Austria’s day-ahead price stayed below Hungary at €188.88/MWh.
Demand and renewable forecasts improve, but cross-border flows shift
Regional demand increased modestly by around 284 MW to 29.94 GW. Forecast wind generation rose by about 959 MW to 2.32 GW, while solar gained 470 MW to reach 6.12 GW. Total scheduled generation increased to approximately 27.94 GW, reducing regional net imports by about 466 MW to 2.00 GW.
The largest improvement came from Romania, where its scheduled import requirement fell from roughly 1.44 GW to 314 MW. That change followed forecast generation rising by more than 1 GW to 5.21 GW. The improvement remained vulnerable because Romanian nuclear output is still absent, leaving the system dependent on weather-sensitive generation and cross-border support.
Schemes also shifted in Slovenia and Hungary in opposite directions, with Slovenia moving from roughly a 251 MW-import position to about 469 MW of scheduled exports. Hungary’s scheduled imports increased to around 1.70 GW, while domestic generation fell to roughly 3.06 GW. This reinforced Hungary’s dependence on Slovakia, Romania and other neighbouring systems.
Kozloduy water limits tighten Bulgarian export outlook amid nuclear constraints
Bulgaria remained a major regional exporter, but its scheduled surplus fell sharply to about 826 MW, down from
1.50 GW as demand rose while forecast generation declined.
Bulgaria also faced an additional nuclear constraint after output from both Kozloduy units 5 and 6 was reduced by around . Output reductions were linked to critically low Danube water levels, with unit 5 already under a low-water operating regime.
The extended restrictions increased Bulgaria’s regional significance because it has become one of Romania’s most important marginal sources of imported electricity, adding hydrological risk in a market already dealing with weak Romanian nuclear availability.
Nuclear outages absent in Romania; intraday ranges narrow across SEE markets
Bosnia and Herzegovina remained an important exporter with scheduled net exports of roughly . Croatia continued importing around , Albania at , and Montenegro about . Greece stayed a net exporter, although its scheduled surplus narrowed to around .
No monitored SEE market recorded a negative day-ahead price, while hourly volatility moderated compared with earlier sessions. Serbia traded between about €110.60 and €250.10/MWh, narrower than the previous day’s €45.90-295.10 range, and Hungary ranged from roughly €139.80 to €266.50/MWh.
No monitored SEE market recorded a negative day-ahead price, while hourly volatility moderated compared with earlier sessions.
TURKEY stays far cheaper; forward prices hold scarcity premium for Hungary
TURKEY remained dramatically cheaper than the rest of the region, with a provisional day-ahead average around TRY3,006/MWh, equivalent to approximately €55/MWh. That placed Turkish electricity more than €150/MWh below Bulgaria, but scheduled exports into Bulgaria were only around €100 MW.
The price difference reflected the economic value of additional cross-border capacity, even though cheap generation near the SEE market could not be moved enough to materially compress regional prices. A similar constraint appeared farther north, where Germany’s €139/MWh electricity had limited impact on a Hungarian market clearing above €214/MWh.
The Hungarian forward market strengthened even as German spot power collapsed, with Week 42 around €216/MWh, November at approximately €219.50/MWh and Calendar 2027 near €157.50/MWh for trading reference points cited in the report date window. Higher gas and carbon prices supported forwards, with CEGH gas around €78.93/MWh and EU allowances near €85.25/tonne.
The forward curve indicated traders did not expect Germany’s sharp spot decline to translate automatically into sustained relief for Southeast Europe, given Hungary’s import dependence, Romania’s lack of nuclear generation and Bulgaria’s export capability being constrained by low Danube levels.
The Oct. 8 market data showed that renewable recovery did not remove regional pricing pressure when transmission constraints limited power flows into tighter markets; the nearly €75/MWh Hungary-Germany spread reflected that effect alongside outages affecting cross-border availability.