On October 8, Serbian day-ahead electricity prices fell while Hungary, Bulgaria and Montenegro moved higher, widening regional spreads. The changes left southeastern Europe facing higher power costs despite forecasts for stronger renewable availability.
Day-ahead price moves across southeastern Europe
Hungary’s HUPX price reached €214.28/MWh, up €3.50 from the previous day. Its premium over Germany widened to €74.93/MWh, from about €18.80, after German prices dropped €52.70 to €139.35/MWh. The divergence indicated that the fall in Germany did not translate into comparable relief across southeastern Europe.
Serbia recorded the largest daily decline among the exchanges covered, with SEEPEX falling €18.60 to €179.39/MWh, a drop of about 9.4%. Serbian power was then €34.89/MWh below Hungary and €29.41/MWh below Montenegro where transmission capacity was available for cross-border trade.
The lower Serbian price did not reflect an export surplus, as Serbia’s reported power balance still showed imports averaging 988 MW. Daily average spreads were also noted as insufficient to determine executable trading margins because those depend on hourly prices, available capacity and transaction costs.
Montenegro moved in the opposite direction, with BELEN rising €11.40 to €208.80/MWh. That brought it close to Romanian and Bulgarian levels and narrowed its discount to Hungary to €5.48/MWh.
OPCOM in Romania settled at €209.45/MWh, up €0.70, while Bulgaria’s IBEX increased €9.80 to €208.40/MWh. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Montenegro formed a relatively tight price group above €208/MWh.
Southeastern European price range and renewable outlook
Albania remained the most expensive market in the report at €221.53/MWh, up €9.40. Greece was the cheapest at €165.25/MWh, followed by North Macedonia at €167.78/MWh. The Albania–Greece spread reached €56.28/MWh.
CROPEX in Croatia was at €200.81/MWh, down €3.50, and Slovenia’s BSP eased to €197.10/MWh, down €5.10. Italy slipped by €1.40 to €218.84/MWh, keeping a premium of about
The regional outlook pointed to stronger renewable availability alongside modestly higher demand, with forecast average consumption rising by . Forecast average consumption increased by . Solar generation was forecast at 6,118 MW, up 470 MW, while wind rose 959 MW to 2,319 MW.
The combined wind and solar output was forecast to increase by approximately 1.43 GW, compared with the rise in consumption of 284 MW to 29,944 MW. Net regional imports nevertheless fell 466 MW to 2,004 MW, while imports through the Austria–Slovakia corridor into Hungary and Slovenia declined 542 MW to 1,528 MW.
Northern gas, carbon prices and forward electricity levels
The forward curve strengthened after the day-ahead moves, with Hungarian week-42 power rising by €14 to €216/MWh and November increasing €7 to €219.50/MWh. The November Hungary–Germany spread widened by €2 to €42/MWh.
Austrian gas prices also increased, with CEGH gas reaching €78.93/MWh, up €1.10, while November gas rose €2.50 to €79.50/MWh. EU carbon allowances rose €0.50 to €85.25/t.
The combination of higher Hungarian forwards and prices above €208/MWh across several neighbouring markets left southeastern Europe facing expensive replacement power as the winter contracting period advanced.