Greece is set to play an increasingly important role in regional gas supply over the next decade, according to a new long-term outlook published by the national gas transmission operator DESFA, which analyzes projected gas flows through the country’s transmission network and LNG facilities between 2026 and 2035.
DESFA warns that the operating environment for natural gas has become far more unpredictable since 2022, as geopolitical tensions, energy transition policies and shifting market dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty, making long-term planning more complex than in the past.
Under the baseline scenario, domestic gas demand in Greece is expected to reach around 6 bcm in 2026, rising gradually to a peak of about 7.1 bcm by 2033 and remaining broadly stable through 2035. At the same time, Greece is forecast to preserve strong export capability, with outbound volumes ranging from 1.3 to 3.8 bcm in 2026 and increasing to between 1.9 and 3.5 bcm toward the end of the period.
Gas-fired power generation is projected to remain a cornerstone of demand throughout the decade, despite ongoing growth in renewable capacity. DESFA links this resilience mainly to continued electricity exports, which sustain the role of combined-cycle gas turbine plants in line with the country’s National Energy and Climate Plan.
The outlook also anticipates expansion across several additional market segments. Consumption through distribution networks is expected to increase as local operators extend gas access to new regions, while demand from large industrial and commercial consumers connected to the high-pressure system is projected to recover following the sharp decline triggered by extreme gas prices in 2022–2023.
Finally, DESFA highlights strong growth potential in small-scale LNG, especially in truck loading and satellite LNG services. Overall, the forecast suggests that Greece will strengthen its position not only as a major gas consumer but also as a key transit and export hub, linking LNG imports and regional pipeline flows to markets across southeastern and central Europe in an evolving and uncertain energy landscape.